Missouri Polling: Do Voters Support Legal Sports Betting?
Missouri residents will head to the polls next month to decide the legality of sports betting in the state.
The campaign process was challenged by political consultants tied to Caesars in August, but a Cole County Circuit Judge ruled in favor of Secretary of State John Ashcroft two weeks later, leaving the question on the ballot.
Since then, both of the state’s gubernatorial candidates backed the Missouri sports betting initiative. Missouri voters also appear to be receptive to the idea of legal online sports betting as five of the seven major polls in Missouri show a plurality of voters support legalization, including the two most recent major polls, which showed a majority in favor.
Early voting for absentee voters begins two weeks before the Nov. 5 election day.
Missouri sports betting polling history
Though the number of signatures that Winning for Missouri Education has collected may indicate significant interest in legal sports betting from Missourians, voter approval on the issue has not always been high.
In the last two years, Missourians have been polled several times on the issue of legal sports betting. Registered voters supported legalization in the three most recent polls after two earlier published polls did not provide much optimism for the proponents of legal betting.
Below is a look at the seven published polls:
Poll 1:
The first poll, conducted between Feb. 8 and 14, 2023, by St. Louis University/YouGov, surveyed 433 likely voters. The voters were presented with the following statement: “Betting on collegiate and professional sports should be legal in Missouri.”
- Thirty-five percent of respondents said they agreed, 41% disagreed, and 24% said they were not sure.
- There was a notable split between voters in rural areas and urban and suburban areas. Among rural voters, 24% agreed that sports betting should be legal, compared to 34% of urban voters and 43% of suburban voters.
- Age also influenced how people answered the question: 51% of voters aged 18-29 agreed that betting should be legal, compared to only 23% of voters who were 65 or older.
Poll 2:
The second poll, cited by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, was conducted in November 2023 by Remington Research Group. The poll surveyed 711 likely voters and found 26% of respondents in favor of legalizing sports betting, 54% opposed, and 20% unsure. The margin of error was 3.8%.
Poll 3:
The third poll, which Fox 4/Emerson College conducted in January 2024, surveyed 1,830 registered voters and found much different results.
- 62% of participants said they would support an initiative to legalize sports betting, while 38% said they would vote no.
Poll 4:
The fourth poll, which SLU/YouGov conducted from Feb. 14 to 26, 2024, surveyed 900 likely voters on various political issues. Sixty percent of those polled said they would support legalizing sports betting, 25% opposed it, and 14% were unsure.
- Younger people participating in the poll were more supportive of the issue, as 76% of respondents aged 18-29 supported legalization, compared to 45% among those 65 and older.
- Democrats were also slightly more in favor of legal betting, as 65% of Democratic voters were in favor, while 20% were opposed and 15% were not sure. Among Republican participants, 58% said sports betting should be legal, 28% were opposed, and 14% were not sure.
- The poll also asked participants about legalizing video lottery terminals in the state, a contentious issue that has been a roadblock to legalizing sports betting for multiple years. According to the poll, “more than half” of the respondents indicated that VLTs should be legal in bars, truck stops, frats, and veterans’ organizations for those who are 21 and older. Thirty-one percent were opposed. Additionally, 46% supported legalizing VLTs in convenience stores, while 40% were opposed.
- Lastly, the poll asked participants if betting on college sports should be legal: 47% of respondents said yes, 39% said no, and 14% were not sure. Among Democratic voters, 50% said college sports betting should be legal, 34% said no, and 15% were not sure. Among Republicans, 44% were in favor, with 42% opposed and 13% unsure.
Poll 5:
The fifth poll, conducted from June 17-19, 2024, surveyed 1,000 registered voters via landline and touched on several political issues. 38% of respondents were in favor of legalizing sports betting while 35% said they would vote against it and 26% were unsure.
- The data set was weighted by gender, education, race and age based on modeling from the US Census and registration data provided by the Missouri Secretary of State.
Poll 6:
The sixth poll, conducted from Aug. 8-16, surveyed 900 likely voters. 50% of respondents supported Amendment 2 (legalizing sports betting), while 30% were opposed and 21% were not sure.
Poll 7:
The seventh poll, conducted from Sept. 12-13, surveyed 850 people via text message and an online panel. Men also supported legalizing sports betting at a higher rate than women. 59% of men supported the measure, while 46% of women supported it.
Factors that could impact the Missouri ballot initiative
Voter turnout
During the 2020 presidential election, 63.1% of voting-age Missourians voted, compared to 59.6% in the 2016 and 2012 elections.
Voter turnout is higher in all states during presidential election years, so the number of voters weighing in on legal sports betting would likely be higher in 2024 than if the issue appeared on the ballot in a non-election year.
Presidential election
Missouri has leaned red in six consecutive presidential elections, including years when the Democrats won by a large margin nationwide.
This occurred in 2008, when Republican candidate John McCain won 49.36% of the vote in Missouri, while Barack Obama won 49.23% in Missouri and 52.9% of the popular vote nationwide.
Missouri’s last two presidential votes were decisive Republican victories for Republican Donald Trump. In 2016, 56.38% of the popular vote went to Trump (37.87% Democrat), and in 2020, Trump held 56.8% of the vote (41.41% Democrat). Trump is the Republican candidate again in 2024, going up against presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
In one of the recent sports betting polls of likely voters (Poll 4), 58% of Republicans said sports betting should be legal, 28% were opposed, and 14% were not sure. A higher percentage of Democratic voters (65%) favored legal sports betting.
Senate race
The Missouri Senate race could also impact down-ballot issues in 2024. This would put the issue of sports betting in front of more people than in a non-election year.
Republican Josh Hawley is the incumbent after winning 51.4% of the vote in 2018.
Democrat Claire McCaskill won the previous Senate race with 54.81% of the vote in 2012. McCaskill also won in 2006.
The Senate primary elections will take place on Aug. 6 in 2024. Marine veteran Lucas Kunce is the favorite to win the Democratic primary, although recent polls show Hawley as the likely victor in November.
Gubernatorial race
The race for the next Governor of the state could also impact sports betting on the Missouri ballot as both have publicly backed legal sports betting. Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and Democrat Rep. Crystal Quade are the choices, and Kehoe has the lead in many major polls. Three of the last four Missouri governors have been Republicans, dating back to 2005.
History of ballot measures in Missouri
While not necessarily an indication of future ballot measure success, Missourians have largely supported ballot measures. In all, 63.36% of all statewide ballot measures were approved between 1985 and 2020 (83 approved, 48 defeated).
Two measures are already scheduled to appear on the August and November ballots in 2024. Four more measures, including sports betting, could also appear on the ballot.
Sports betting ballot initiatives in other states
Several other recent ballot initiatives related to sports betting or gambling have come up in other states. Below is a list of recent examples, sorted by year.
2024 (upcoming vote):
- Colorado Retain Sports Betting Tax Revenue Measure. This measure would allow the state to collect more tax revenue from sports betting to fund water conservation projects. By law, the state currently cannot retain more than $29 million.
2022:
- California Proposition 26 and Proposition 27. Prop 26 would have legalized sports betting at tribal casinos and licensed racetracks, while Prop 27 would have legalized online sports betting. Both failed, with 66.98% voting “no” on Prop 26 and 82.28% voting “no” on Prop 27.
2021:
- New Jersey Public Question 1. This amendment would have allowed betting on in-state college sports. It was defeated with 57.01% voting “no.”
2020:
- South Dakota Constitutional Amendment B. This amendment legalized sports betting within the city limits of Deadwood, South Dakota. It passed with 58.47% of the vote.
- Maryland Question 2. This measure authorized sports betting at certain licensed locations. It passed with 67.07% of the vote.
2018:
- Florida Amendment 3. This measure gave voters the exclusive right to decide whether to authorize casino gambling in Florida through ballot measures, therefore not allowing the legislature to decide independently. The measure passed with 71.47% of the vote.
In the future, more states may have to address the issue of legal sports betting through a statewide ballot initiative. Alabama and Georgia, for example, require a constitutional amendment to legalize sports betting.
Missouri sports betting roadblocks
Sports betting legislation in Missouri has met resistance primarily from one source: state Sen. Denny Hoskins. Hoskins’ insistence on legalizing video lottery terminals, or VLTs, as part of any legislation has led to multiple failed sports betting bills despite support from legislators, sports teams, and the public. Legislation passed in the House in each of the last three legislative sessions, only to be stifled by Hoskins in the Senate.
“There are enough people who want to get sports betting done. It’s getting sort of ridiculous,” an industry source told LSR in July 2023.
Hoskins has participated in filibusters several times in his attempts to block legislation, including an eight-hour session in 2023 that included a reading of Ronald Reagan’s biography.
While Hoskins’ term in the Senate ends in 2024, sources have told LSR in the past that VLT lobbyists could find another lawmaker to stand in the way.
Missouri sports betting ballot proposal details
If sports betting is legalized in November, the proposal would create an online and in-person sports betting market in Missouri. The state’s 13 casinos and six professional sports teams would get licenses, and the Missouri Gaming Commission could give two additional licenses to sports betting operators.
The state would tax sports betting revenue at 10%.
Next steps
Now that the secretary of state’s office has verified the signatures needed for the ballot and issued a certificate of sufficiency, citizens can head to the polls in November to vote on the issue.
Here is how the ballot question will read:
“A ‘yes’ vote will amend the Missouri Constitution to permit licensed sports wagering regulated by the Missouri Gaming Commission and restrict sports betting to individuals physically located in the state and over the age of 21. The amendment includes a 10% wagering tax on revenues received to be appropriated for educational institutions in Missouri.”
“A ‘no’ vote will not amend the Missouri Constitution regarding licensed regulated sports wagering.”