Sportsbooks moved quickly to reprice Monday’s USA-Belgium World Cup Round of 16 match after news broke that star forward Folarin Balogun would be available to play, reversing a suspension that had been expected to sideline him.
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Where the lines opened
Before the Balogun news broke, the matchup was shaping up as one of the tightest of the knockout round. After beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 as a heavy -800 favorite, the USMNT opened as just a -120 favorite to advance against Belgium, with Belgium at -105 to advance. On the three-way line, the U.S. sat at +150, Belgium at +170, and a draw was priced at +240.
That pricing reflected an expected absence: Balogun appeared set to miss the match after a controversial red card in the 64th minute against Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the U.S. leading 1-0 at the time. Despite objections over the VAR decision, the U.S. had no path to appeal the card.
US-Belgium opening odds
- USA to advance: -120
- Belgium to advance: -105
- Three-way line:
- USA: +150
- Belgium: +170
- Draw: +240
- USA to win in regulation: +180
The reversal and market reaction
On Sunday afternoon, it emerged that a FIFA committee had suspended the ban, clearing Balogun to play Monday night. Books responded almost immediately, though with some caution given how tight the match already looked.
The U.S. moved from -115 to -140 to advance at DraftKings, and from -105 to -120 at Hard Rock Bet. A Hard Rock Bet representative said the U.S. had been priced at +180 to win in regulation Sunday morning, a number that dropped to +155 once the Balogun news was confirmed.
By Monday morning, the broader market had settled into a slightly more decisive number: DraftKings had moved the U.S. from -115 to -140 to advance past Belgium on the Balogun news, while other sportsbooks adjusted only marginally, leaving a consensus Monday price of USA -125 and Belgium +105.
Caesars’ trading desk framed the move as a straightforward repricing exercise. The book’s vice president of trading noted that its pre-match numbers had been built on the assumption the U.S. would be without its leading scorer, so Balogun’s reinstatement forced adjustments across nearly every market.
US-Belgium current odds
A U.S.-heavy betting market regardless
The line movement came on top of what was already lopsided public backing for the Americans. Sportsbooks had reported that upwards of 85% of bets and 90% of money wagered went on the U.S. in the Bosnia match, and Caesars said 91% of handle in match betting and 87% in the “to qualify” market had gone the USMNT’s way. That Bosnia match reportedly generated the most money ever wagered on a soccer match at Caesars.
The trend continued into the Belgium matchup: BetMGM reported that 92% of money wagered was on the U.S. to advance, in what’s shaping up as a record-setting World Cup for the American betting market, with most of that action placed before the Balogun news even broke. Caesars’ trading VP added that Monday’s game was expected to reclaim the record for money wagered on a single match, surpassing even the England-Mexico total from the day before.
The bigger picture
Belgium, for its part, advanced by beating Senegal 3-2, scoring three late goals after trailing for most of the match and being down 2-0 for a large stretch of the second half. A U.S. win Monday would mark its first trip to the World Cup quarterfinals since 2002, when it beat Mexico 2-0 in the Round of 16.
The Balogun saga hasn’t been entirely free of controversy, Belgium was reportedly granted the right to appeal the reversal, but for now, the betting market has spoken: a marginal favorite has become a clearer one, and the money keeps flowing toward the Americans.
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