Flutter shares are trading at their lowest levels since the company’s U.S. listing, after its earnings report raised concerns about FanDuel on Thursday.
Several issues arose from the report. Flutter missed consensus EBITDA expectations and issued U.S. EBITDA guidance for next year below forecasts. Handle growth also slowed, with FanDuel mostly blaming that on its high hold during the NFL season, though concerns about prediction markets and long-term hold are likely driving the selloff as well.
Analysts responded by cutting price targets sharply.
Flutter closed down 13.8% to $106.14 on Friday, a record low since the stock launched on the NYSE in January 2024.
DraftKings shines by comparison
The report also makes DraftKings’ earnings earlier this month look stronger.
Barry Jonas of Truist broke down the comparison. While FanDuel had better top line numbers in terms of revenue, net revenue margin, structural hold and higher monthly active users growth, DraftKings reported higher adjusted EBITDA, higher EBITDA margin and higher handle growth.
Jonas maintained his buy rating for FLUT but cut his target to $160, down from $260 after lowering his 2026 EBITDA forecast by 30% to match guidance.
With the negatives behind Flutter, Jonas is eyeing incremental improvements including potential new online casino states and prediction market business developments.
Predictions players better than expected?
Flutter said its guidance of $200 million to $300 million spent acquiring predictions customers will fall closer to the high end of the range.
While the company said it was still in a learning phase with predictions, Jeffrey Stantial of Stifel notes the update to the high side of guidance likely reflects a clearer product roadmap and initial player engagement coming in either at or above expectations.
Stantial said near-term headline risks of predictions competitors and state tax hikes keeps him “cautious for now.” That said, he maintained his buy rating while dropping his price target to $216 from $259 as adjusted EBITDA forecasts fell 17% for this year and 9% for 2027.
FanDuel parent selloff is ‘over done’
Chad Beynon of Macquarie noted the market is likely reacting to the threat of predictions and handle growth fears and noted the dip as it relates to predictions is “over done.”
As for handle growth, management acknowledged it mishandled promotions in the fourth quarter and is making changes to hopefully see that growth rate tick back up.
Beynon maintained his outperform rating while dropping his target to $230 from $325. He cut his 2026 and 2027 EBITDA forecasts by 15.8% and 14.1%, respectively.
