key takeaways
- Super Bowl 60 will extend a years-long run of record betting handle as the industry’s profile continues to shift from rapid expansion to incremental growth.
- The meteoric rise of prediction markets, fantasy prop contests, and other alternative gambling products complicates the outlook and creates the potential for fragmented engagement.
- The Super Bowl remains a major event for sportsbooks, where acquisition, cross-sell, and long-term retention matter as much as the outcome of the game itself.
Super Bowl 60 is poised to generate an estimated $1.71 billion in legal wagers across the US according to projections from LSR, extending a streak of record-setting handle that stretches back eight years.
The big number, however, masks a complex reality for an industry that finds itself at an inflection point. Expansion and momentum have slowed, and Americans now have widespread access to a growing variety of novel products that mimic sports betting without falling cleanly under its definition—a dynamic that threatens to cannibalize volume in regulated markets.
For traditional sportsbooks, the weekend still presents extraordinary upside.
The Feb. 8 matchup between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks will once again go down as the biggest betting day ever, and record handle implies nine figures of collective revenue potential for operators. The Big Game typically accounts for around 1% of annual betting volume nationwide, equivalent to roughly three days of average traffic.
This year’s legal Super Bowl betting preview is presented in partnership with the Sports Betting Alliance, whose five member brands are committed to the continued development of a well-regulated sports betting industry.
Super Bowl betting set to grow again
Eight states contributed to the first post-PASPA Super Bowl report in 2019, combining to amass around $200 million in total handle. Betting first crossed $500 million in 2021, storming past $1 billion in 2023. Estimates for last year’s Super Bowl top out around $1.5 billion across 40 states and territories, though sparse reporting leaves big gaps in the known totals.
Historical Super Bowl Betting Handle
Actual & Estimated (2018–2026F)
This year’s forecast reflects the continued growth of the regulated US sports betting industry over the past 12 months, but it also incorporates emerging challenges. Betting fatigue is becoming evident in some markets, while competition from trendier forms of sports speculation has begun to challenge traditional sportsbooks at the margins.
The lack of map expansion is the most obvious reason for the slowdown, though. Nearly every state with a path to legalization has already taken that step, so the growth of Super Bowl betting has come to mirror the incremental trajectory of the industry as a whole.
Missouri is the only new addition to the regulated roster this year, having just opened its sports betting market in December. Its impact on the national totals for the Super Bowl will be small considering both its newness and the rare playoff absence of the Kansas City Chiefs.
New York, New Jersey top Super Bowl 60 betting forecast
New York should be the biggest Super Bowl betting state with room to spare. It is easily the busiest legal betting market in the US, about 65% bigger than Illinois and more than twice the size of New Jersey. Major sporting events create a unique set of circumstances, though, and New York has never topped the national leaderboard for Super Bowl betting volume. Last year’s $155 million was down slightly from 2024 and only good enough for second place despite strong underlying growth.
At the risk of being wrong twice in a row: this should be the year. Betting in New York is still growing at a steady clip, up 16% in 2025 and seemingly with enough steam to take the top spot for Super Bowl 60. LSR modeling projects New York to accumulate $171 million in handle for the game, though a miss by 10% either way would still fall comfortably into the range of reasonable outcomes.
New Jersey was No. 1 last year at $169 million, but modest pullback in subsequent months makes that Sunday surge look like an overperformance in retrospect. Its forecast for this year’s game also includes a small correction from reduced local interest in this matchup, dipping to $161 million and falling back to second place behind New York.
Super Bowl 60 Betting Handle
(Projected $ in Millions)
Super Bowl betting irony in California
The host role for California makes this Super Bowl the first since 2022 to visit a state without legal sports betting. The previous three destinations (Louisiana, Nevada, and Arizona) each enjoyed a spike in betting volume during their host years driven by visiting attendance, local engagement, and the concentration of promotional activity.
The absence of California from the legal betting landscape eliminates that boost for 2026, perhaps even dragging the national totals by capturing tens of thousands of prospective bettors in a state without legal betting on the biggest betting day of the year. More significantly, it highlights the awkward reality that the country’s most populated state and its largest latent sports betting market remains, practically speaking, off limits only to regulated sportsbooks.
Prop-based fantasy sports, peer-to-peer prediction markets, and other quasi-regulated alternatives now facilitate nationwide access to Super Bowl speculation in one form or another. That audience includes the tens of millions of Californians who’ll tune in on Sunday. So while sports betting is technically illegal in the state, residents and visitors still have plenty of ways to engage financially with the game—a prohibition in name only.
A regulated California online sports betting market would easily be the largest in the US with at least $300 million in annual Super Bowl betting potential.
Nevada fades into Super Bowl betting background
It might still be the cultural capital of Super Bowl betting, but Nevada’s gambling industry continues to face headwinds from declining visitation and softening demand for the experience it offers. After falling out of first place for the first time in 2025, its indicators for this year have not improved.
Las Vegas tourism was down around 7.5% for the year, challenging for the lowest visitation since the pandemic pending December’s results. Sportsbooks on the Strip meanwhile charge hundreds of dollars for seat reservations and thousands for tables on Super Bowl Sunday. It could be a tough sell.
The absence of a team from California in the matchup also poses a potential problem. The sample size is small, but Nevada did show a noticeable uptick in Super Bowl betting in both 2022 (Los Angeles Rams) and 2024 (San Francisco 49ers). The Rams’ loss in the NFC Championship is another caution flag for local expectations this year.
The growing availability of non-traditional betting options exerts additional downward pressure. Californians no longer have to travel to Vegas or Reno to participate in the practical equivalent of legal sports betting, a factor that also affects other bordering states to a smaller degree.
While it is historically unwise to bet against Las Vegas when it comes to turnout for marquee events, it is hard to ignore the warning signs that frame this year’s Super Bowl outlook. LSR’s model expects Nevada’s handle to slide back to $144 million, and an overperformance would arguably be more surprising than an underperformance.
Other key states for Super Bowl 60 betting
Pennsylvania is the only other major sports betting market that provides reliable Super Bowl data, and it historically depends on the Eagles to drive betting interest deep into the playoffs. Handle spiked to new single-game records for their two matchups against the Chiefs in 2023 and 2025, dipping noticeably in the in-between years. The Eagles’ exit in the Wild Card round caps Pennsylvania’s sixth-place Super Bowl betting outlook around $96.9 million.
Old data from Illinois suggests bettors there might be less engaged with the Super Bowl than in most other big markets. The Bears’ playoff appearance this year should help pad the numbers with futures bets that have already lost, but Illinois’ handle forecast of $114 million is still scaled down from its performance across the full year, where it ranks as the second-biggest betting state.
Ohio and Florida also figure to be among the top states for Super Bowl 60 betting with more than $100 million in handle apiece, while Massachusetts gets a big boost to $78.7 million from the Patriots’ participation. In fact, that popular result in the AFC Championship shores up the floor across a number of states as compared to a Broncos win.
Revenue is the real variable for Super Bowl betting
If handle describes the scale of Super Bowl betting, revenue defines its consequences.
How much of the total wagering pool ends up back in the hands of bettors hinges not only on the outcome of the game, but also the countless secondary markets that have become so popular. A single point or a single yard could swing the result for operators by tens of millions of dollars.
Super Bowl hold in Nevada over the past decade has ranged from 1% (2018) to 12% (2020), having never produced an overall loss. Given the comparatively old-fashioned nature of the local industry there, Nevada’s sportsbooks tend to work on smaller margins than their counterparts elsewhere in the US.
Total Super Bowl betting revenue nationwide should therefore surpass $100 million, presuming a combined hold of at least 6%. Working in operators’ favor is the unique breadth of the betting menu for this game and its particular appeal to recreational customers.
Props, parlays prove particularly popular Super Bowl picks
Player props like touchdown markets are the favorite wager for casual Super Bowl bettors.
Saquon Barkley touchdown props were the overwhelming top pick for US bettors in Super Bowl 59, just like Travis Kelce was for Super Bowl 58. Touchdown volume this year could be more spread out without a bell cow like Barkley in the matchup, though passing props for MVP frontrunner Drake Maye also figure to be popular.
Sportsbooks additionally offer an expansive menu of novelty props that exist exclusively for the Super Bowl. Bets involving the national anthem, the opening coin toss, the halftime show, and the postgame Gatorade bath all drive substantial interest—especially among recreational bettors who value entertainment as much as ROI. These specialized markets are available at the discretion of state policymakers, so the exact betting menu varies by jurisdiction.
Limited granular reporting suggests that at least 25% of Super Bowl handle will be rolled into parlays, with props often acting as the building blocks for those multi-leg tickets that have become so ubiquitous among US bettors. Another 25% of handle is tied up in outstanding futures placed throughout the season, while in-play betting still represents a small share of the game’s total volume.
The Super Bowl also remains a major event for brick-and-mortar sportsbooks, clawing back a few points of the day’s handle from their online counterparts. Something like 92% of Super Bowl betting occurs online compared to 96% for the rest of the year, a nice boost for casinos, tracks, and other retail gambling venues.
Super Bowl as an acquisition engine
Those secondary betting markets surrounding the Super Bowl are more than just a novelty; they serve a key function within the sports betting ecosystem by lowering the barrier to entry for recreational customers. The big menu is especially appealing to these casual players who may only place a few wagers per year, some of whom are opening an account for the very first time. Last year, location provider GeoComply tracked the creation of more than 700,000 new sports betting accounts nationwide during Super Bowl weekend.
BetMGM Trading Manager Christian Cipollini spoke to LSR about the importance of engaging with these customers for more than just one weekend per year.
“We see a nice pickup in cross-sell between casino and sports betting when new or returning customers engage with our games,” Cipollini said. “Once they discover the entertainment value our product suite provides, they often become loyal players. So the big game is a special opportunity for the entire company.”
For major national operators like BetMGM, Super Bowl success is not measured by the outcome of the game alone. The value of new and reactivated customers and the cost of acquiring/retaining them remain central to how sportsbooks approach the weekend and assess the results on Monday morning.
Prediction markets compete for Super Bowl bettors
Perhaps the most significant change in the Super Bowl betting landscape stems from renewed uncertainty over what even constitutes a bet.
Prediction markets now offer access to an emerging form of Super Bowl speculation across all 50 states, including those like California without legal sports betting by definition. Americans everywhere can trade sports contracts right alongside their investment portfolio on platforms like Robinhood and Crypto.com, all under the oversight of federal financial regulators and purportedly beyond the reach of any state agency.
Kalshi was among the first to bring Super Bowl predictions to US consumers last year via a rudimentary platform that attracted just $27 million in volume on the game, a rounding error compared to the money that flowed through traditional state-regulated sportsbooks.
Prediction products have vastly improved in the past year, however, becoming virtually indistinguishable from sportsbooks and injecting a fair amount of uncertainty into the forecast for 2026. Trading for this year’s game on Kalshi is already nearing $150 million at the time of writing, though it should be noted that not all activity comes from US customers and trading volume is not analogous to betting handle.
Predicting a shakeup for US sports betting
The perceived upside for prediction products has grown significant enough to command the attention of the largest sportsbook operators.
DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics all launched their own trading platforms near the end of 2025, though they currently refrain from offering sports contracts in markets where they hold a local betting license. Their eagerness to invest in the segment suggests they view it as more than just a passing curiosity despite the vast amount of legal uncertainty that lingers in the air.
The effect of these prediction markets on traditional Super Bowl betting is by far the biggest unknown in this year’s outlook. How much handle will these platforms siphon from traditional sportsbooks in regulated states? How much volume will they generate in California and Texas, and how much of that would have otherwise been counted as betting handle in places like Nevada or Arizona?
While prediction markets are unlikely to replace sports betting, they are proving to be a suitable substitute for those without a state-regulated option. And they will drastically increase Americans’ total financial exposure to the game this year.
For now, these products remain excluded from this Super Bowl betting forecast beyond a small negative adjustment to some projected state-reported totals.
Super Bowl 60 betting in context
This year’s Super Bowl will once again go down as the biggest day of betting in US history, but the context has become complicated. The industry is moving toward a post-growth phase characterized by increased scrutiny from policymakers and the rapid rise of alternative platforms that challenge the traditional model.
The forecast still remains bullish in absolute terms.
More than 230 million Americans across 41 states and territories have access to legal sports betting in 2026, and more of them will wager on this Super Bowl than ever before. Handle is still ticking upward across the country, and operator revenue enters the new year on an unprecedented hot streak.
But the climate does seem to be changing.
Operators that once competed primarily on acquisition now face a more nuanced calculation when it comes to retaining those customers, defending against (or embracing) non-traditional formats, and navigating an increasingly taxing regulatory landscape. Even some of the industry leaders seem unsure about the path forward.
For the state-regulated industry, Super Bowl 60 is both a celebration of how far sports betting has come and a preview of the challenges that lie ahead.
How LSR forecasts Super Bowl betting
This Super Bowl betting outlook is derived from a composite model that incorporates known historical data and internal estimates designed to account for incomplete reporting. Manual adjustments reflect anticipated event-specific demand, regional interactions between markets, and perceived differences in football betting engagement between jurisdictions.
Forecasting the Super Bowl has grown more challenging as the US market expands. While Nevada has consistently published post-game results for decades, most states report Super Bowl data intermittently or not at all. Complexities exist even with reported data; some states count only wagers placed within a defined window leading up to kickoff, while others include futures and early prop markets across their entire lifespan.
Our Super Bowl betting tracker therefore blends reported results with modeled estimates to produce a reasoned approximation of nationwide activity. Historical and projected Super Bowl handle are best understood as estimates rather than a precise accounting.
