Genius Sports reported its first quarterly operating profit and raised its full-year outlook as growing demand for sports betting and prediction markets helped drive a 62% increase in revenue.
The sports data provider reported Thursday $269.9 million in third-quarter revenue, exceeding its $260 million forecast, on the back of its expanded betting business and and marketing revenue growth from acquiring Legend.
Genius posted $10.4 million in operating profit, reversing a $25.6 million loss a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA surged 156% year-over-year to $87.1 million.
Despite the gains, Genius reported a loss of 6 cents per share, missing analysts’ expectations of a gain of 2 cents per share. That sent shares down 15.6% to $5.92 at close on more than three times its average trading volume.
Genius Sports raises 2026 outlook
Stronger betting activity and growth in its media business prompted Genius to raise its full-year revenue forecast to $1.015 billion to $1.035 billion, up $10 million at the midpoint. It also increased its adjusted EBITDA outlook to $287 million to $297 million.
Betting technology revenue grew 33% to $153 million, supported by stronger activity among existing sports betting customers and new prediction-market business. In-play gross gaming revenue rose nearly 50% during the first four weeks of the NFL season compared with a year earlier.
“This was driven by multiple factors, including a strong start to the NFL season, increased in-play betting, improving operator win margins, and pricing uplift on recent contract renewals,” CFO Bryan Castellani said during Thursday’s earnings call.
Media revenue more than doubled to $116.9 million, primarily reflecting the Legend acquisition. Genius also cited increased advertising spending by sportsbooks and prediction markets as competition for customers intensifies.
Predictions gives Genius ‘slice of every bet’
Genius Sports has expanded beyond traditional sportsbooks through partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, supplying data, integrity services and marketing solutions.
CEO Mark Locke said the company also collects data fees and shares in profits from institutional market makers that provide liquidity to prediction exchanges. He estimates that live trading accounts for roughly two-thirds of sports volume on prediction markets, increasing demand for the real-time data Genius supplies.
“The more liquidity in the market, the more money we’re making, as we’re basically taking a slice of every bet,” Locke said.
Growing competition for prediction-market customers has also boosted Genius’ media business.
“We’ve seen CPAs double on the prediction market side since we bought Legend, which has been good,” Locke said, referring to customer acquisition costs.
Opportunities remain despite legal challenges
The expansion comes as prediction markets face mounting legal challenges from states seeking to regulate sports event contracts as gambling, threatening the platforms’ ability to offer nationwide sports trading.
Locke said Genius should benefit regardless of the regulatory outcome.
“If it flows back to the sportsbooks we already serve, we win. If it stays on prediction market exchanges, we are already there too,” Locke said.
He also confirmed that the company’s forecasts through 2028 do not assume an NFL prediction-market partnership, even as the league weighs its approach to the sector.
