The NFL is backing New Jersey in its bid to bring its fight with Kalshi to the Supreme Court. The league filed an amicus brief Thursday arguing that sports event contracts are not swaps and should fall under state gambling laws.
“But now a new form of sports betting has emerged that undermines these efforts and threatens game integrity: sports betting on prediction markets,” the brief said.
The Third Circuit blocked New Jersey from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi in April. However, the Sixth and Ninth Circuits ruled in favor of states such as Ohio, Tennessee, California and Nevada. The split has created uncertainty for the legal sports betting industry and others with gambling interests.
The NFL is partnered with sports betting operators Fanatics, FanDuel and DraftKings, each of which follows the league’s list of prohibited wagers to protect the integrity of games and provide consumer protections. All three also offer prediction markets, including sports in states without regulated betting industries.
The league questions whether prediction markets can uphold the same guidelines under what it calls a lean Commodity Futures Trading Commission staff.
NFL argues sports contracts are gambling
The NFL said in the brief that the “Sixth and Ninth Circuits got it right” in allowing states to enforce gambling laws against prediction markets.
At the center of the case is whether sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act, which would place them under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. Swaps are typically contracts in which two parties exchange payments to manage financial risk, such as a business hedging against swings in interest rates or currency values.
“Read in its statutory and historical context, Dodd-Frank’s definition of ‘swap’ reaches only instruments created and used for the purpose of hedging preexisting risk,” the brief said.
The league argued that sports contracts do the opposite, creating risk primarily for gambling purposes. It also noted that when Congress passed Dodd-Frank in 2010, federal law still banned sports betting nationwide.
“Given that backdrop, it is inconceivable that Congress, responding to the 2008 financial crisis, effectively enabled nationwide legalization of sports bets dressed up as ‘swaps,’” the brief said.
NFL not ready for predictions partners
The NFL is not partnered with a prediction market operator because Commissioner Roger Goodell wants to see “stronger regulations” that protect the integrity of the game, he told CNBC last month. The structure for sports betting operators already do that, according to the league.
“The NFL has long engaged with state gaming authorities to support core integrity protections in the sports gambling market, including rules prohibiting certain wagers that are highly susceptible to manipulation or are otherwise inherently objectionable,” the brief said.
The league has sent multiple notices to prediction markets, urging them to remove “objectionable” markets that are susceptible to manipulation. According to the brief, the CFTC still has not adopted a flat ban on any of the four categories the NFL flagged, and operators like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to list some of those contracts.
The two withdrew some of those markets, but the NFL is still not impressed.
“Although the NFL, among others, has encouraged the Commission and the DCMs to adopt safeguards and rules for sports wagering like those in the state-regulated world of traditional [legal sports books], the Commission and DCMs so far have stuck to a more laissez-faire approach,” the brief said.
The NFL called the CFTC’s “failure” to reference objectionable contracts “deeply concerning and creates significant risks” for players, coaches and officials. It also said that prediction markets have not accepted the league’s “prohibited bettor lists,” which would mitigate insider trading.
Does CFTC have enough staff?
The CFTC has made substantial cuts to staff since President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, eliminating around 25% of the commission. The brief said the CFTC had 543 employees as of September 2025.
The NFL drew comparisons to state regulators. Gaming boards in Pennsylvania and Nevada each employ close to 400 people to regulate the industry in their states.
“Without adequate staff engaged in oversight and enforcement, even the best regulations cannot meaningfully ensure game integrity and consumer protection,” the NFL said.
The league also criticized the self-certification process for prediction markets, which allows operators to list contracts for trading the next business day.
“Although the Commission may initiate a review and stay a contract to determine compliance, given the novel nature of many sports-related event contracts and the high volume of self-certifications, this current approach fails to provide even the most basic integrity protections,” the league argued.
Prediction markets could partner, eventually
Despite the criticisms of prediction markets, Goodell still called them “potential partners” in his interview with CNBC.
The NFL would like a result before the 2027 season begins since there are billions of dollars “bet on NFL games through prediction markets.” A longer delay would “result in increasing consumer harm and risk to game integrity.”
The NFL would prefer a similar ruling to the Sixth and Ninth Circuits, “reassuring the NFL and others concerned about game integrity and responsible gambling” since prediction markets would be subject to the same regulations as traditional sportsbooks.
However, if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the Third Circuit, that at least gives the NFL clarity and a path forward.
“By contrast, if the Court were to agree with the Third Circuit and conclude that the Commission is in fact the exclusive regulator of sports wagering on DCMs, then the NFL (and other concerned entities) could redouble their efforts this year to persuade the Commission, DCMs, and Congress to adopt more robust integrity and consumer protection measures before the 2027 NFL season begins.”
