Victor Rocha, Conference Chair of the Indian Gaming Association, believes there’s a world in which Kalshi could become a regulated sports betting operator in the future.
“Mark my words, Kalshi is going to pivot to sports betting, because that’s where the money is,” Rocha said on The New Normal podcast on Wednesday.
Prediction markets have been offering sports event contracts, which are federally regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, in nearly every state since early 2025. However, multiple state judges have ruled in favor of enforcing state-level gambling laws, thus prohibiting Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports event contracts.
While the states are acting on their own for now, the decision is likely to be heard by the Supreme Court, which would determine the fate of prediction markets offering sports contracts.
Judges are siding with states
The predictions operator actually came out with the first legal victory back in April 2025. A US District Court for the District of Nevada granted a preliminary injunction against Nevada, which allowed Kalshi to continue to offer sports contracts.
It wasn’t until nearly a year later that the Nevada court issued a temporary restraining order against Kalshi, and then a preliminary injunction last April. That started a trend of judges distinguishing CFTC regulation and state regulation.
“The judge in Nevada’s 180 is the most telling on that,” Scott Crowell, Crowell Law Office Tribal Advocacy Group, said on the podcast. “He’s saying, ‘Hey, look, I got this quick motion for a preliminary injunction. I made a decision based on the information in front of me, and now that I have a lot more information, my gosh, I was wrong.’ You don’t see that very often.”
Crowell referenced Robinhood attempting to get the same motion, which the judge denied. In doing so, that vacated the preliminary injunction Kalshi was first awarded.
Six other states have ruled against Kalshi since: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Utah and Washington.
Kalshi told to defy federal ruling
There are several lawsuits in several states, including a criminal complaint filed in Arizona against Kalshi for operating an illegal gambling platform. Despite that, the CFTC has ordered it to defy court orders in both Michigan and New York.
New York is a key state to make such a stand, since it was a federal judge that granted a preliminary injunction against Kalshi.
“… That is literally a federal agency telling a regulated entity to defy a federal court order,” Crowell said. “In my 50 years of being a lawyer, I’ve never seen such blatant, contemptuous, disregard by a federal agency.”
For now, Kalshi’s legal record has been decidedly one-sided, and the CFTC’s insistence that the company keep operating despite court orders in Michigan and New York only sharpens the standoff rather than resolving it. That fight will likely continue until the Supreme Court weighs in.
