Another poor fourth quarter of NFL results could lead to long-term hold updates and conservative guidance, said Chad Beynon of Macquarie.
Fourth quarter hold rates will drive share prices for DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter for the rest of the year and could impact 2026 outlooks if they are unfavorable enough, he added.
“If 4Q25 is another year of disappointing NFL hold, we anticipate a re-calibration of future hold expectations (specifically for 4Q NFL) and a potential downgrade in ’26 consensus estimates as well as more conservative ’26 guidance from [management],” Beynon said.
Beynon forecasts online gaming revenue to grow 34% for the fourth quarter – 38% from online sports betting and 28% from online casino – assuming 9.5% hold.
DraftKings target lowered
Beynon dropped his DraftKings target to $50 on lower estimates but maintained his buy rating, describing the sell-off from predictions news in September as buying opportunity for both DKNG and FLUT.
Positive commentary and trends reported on third quarter earnings calls, continued online casino growth and strong NFL hold rates in Q4 could see those stocks return to where they were in August, he added.
Beynon now expects $709 million EBITDA for this year and $1.285 billion in 2026, declines of 13.1% and 4.6%, respectively, from prior estimates.
Online casino, betting leaders
Beynon’s estimated market shares for trailing three-month periods has FanDuel atop both online casino and sports betting.
FanDuel had 26.7% of online casino market share over that period through August. DraftKings ranks second at 20.1% and BetMGM is third at 19.1%. No other operator hits double digits, though BetRivers came close at 9.9%.
For sports betting, FanDuel accounted for 39.5% of share through July. DraftKings was second at 34.6%. The disparity between second and third is much larger for sports betting compared to online casino with BetMGM accounting for 6.8% market share.
