BetMGM is not going anywhere near a sports predictions product while its regulators oppose it
CEO Adam Greenblatt made BetMGM‘s stance on sports predictions crystal clear on Tuesday‘s third quarter earnings call. He ended his prepared remarks with a focus on the swirling stories on sports predictions.
“Before wrapping up, I want to briefly address the surge in market, industry and press focus surrounding prediction markets. Our position is clear and aligned with almost 40 state attorneys general, our regulators and our tribal partners. As the law stands today, sports prediction markets are, in essence, illegal sports betting.
“Prediction market operators have no requirements to protect consumers as licensed sports betting operators do. They do not uphold responsible gaming principles, they do not have self-reporting obligations for compliance failings, and do not have whistleblowing and information sharing obligations to ensure the integrity of sports. Additionally, and importantly, they’re not paying gaming taxes to the states in which they are operating. The list could go on.”
No impact felt from predictions
All it takes is a look at state gambling reports to see that sports predictions are not hurting the regulated sports betting market just yet.
“Just follow the data,” Greenblatt said. “If you look at handle trends through the summer and into the [NFL] season, you’ll see that there’s been really no decay, no degradation of year-on-year handle growth in [online sports betting] which, frankly, if I think the prediction markets were having an impact we would have seen.
“So the data says there isn’t an impact at the industry level and, frankly, just to supplement that, if you look at search trends for leading prediction market operators, you’ll see a growing percentage coming from states where the licensed sports betting industry is not operating. So certainly from our regulated [total addressable market] we’re not seeing any effect at this point.”
BetMGM raised guidance for 2025 after a strong performance in July and August and a positive start to October.
BetMGM stance shaped by regulators
Greenblatt said in August that BetMGM was monitoring all the news around both sports predictions and sweepstakes. He noted that the company would not be a first mover on sports predictions but it would not be caught flat-footed, either, if sports predictions are here to stay.
But regulators have been clear that offering sports predictions, whether inside or outside of their jurisdiction, could compromise sports betting licenses.
“There’s no ambiguity in that position, right?” Greenblatt said. “And so, as diligent and proper licensees, we take that very seriously, on top of which, we were at G2E last week in Las Vegas, we met a number of our regulators and, without fail, the position is consistent.
“So until the legal position is clarified and the position of our regulators is different from that which they are today, I feel like as an industry the next step is pretty plain.”
Others are rolling the dice
Some companies with sports betting licenses either have entered sports predictions or are considering a launch.
After a summer of speculation about who may turn to sports predictions, Underdog made the first move in September to launch the markets mostly in states without legal betting through a partnership with Crypto.com. Underdog is best known for its pick-em style daily fantasy sports games but offers sports betting in North Carolina, is planning a launch in Missouri and currently holds a betting license in Ohio.
Multiple reports out of G2E suggest FanDuel parent company Flutter is eyeing a sports predictions launch as well.
