Just eight games remain in the group stage of Euro 2024. Most of the teams still have a chance of qualifying for the Round of 16, so soccer fans can look forward to some tense clashes over the next two days. The most likely teams to advance in the next few games are England (-295), Belgium (-150), and Netherlands (+115).
Below, we’ll review six key matches and explain what the teams need to do to qualify for the Euro 2024 knockout stage.
Qualifying rules
- The top two teams in each group qualify automatically for the Round of 16.
- The four best third-place teams also advance to the Round of 16, while the other two third-place teams do not.
- The teams that finish at the bottom of their groups all do not advance.
Netherlands vs. Austria
The Netherlands is level with France at four points apiece at the top of Group D. Both teams are highly likely to reach the Round of 16, but they are still battling it out for first place.
Austria sits third in the group after beating Poland 3-1 on Matchday 2. The Poles are now unable to reach the knockout stage, as they are guaranteed to finish last in this group. The sportsbooks make Austria the underdog for this game, but the Austrians have a strong midfield, and Marko Arnautović looked sharp in attack against Poland.
Round of 16 scenarios
- The Netherlands simply needs to avoid defeat to qualify for the Round of 16.
- The Dutch can finish atop their group if they win this game. The Netherlands and France are level on points and on goal differential right now, so the Netherlands may need to win by a larger margin than Les Bleus on Matchday 3 to clinch the top spot.
- Austria will qualify for the knockout stage if it wins this game. It will also win the group if it beats the Netherlands and France fails to beat Poland.
- If Austria draws, it is likely to finish third in Group D, but it will have enough points to qualify as one of the best third-place teams.
- Austria could be eliminated if it loses this game. It would still stand a chance of making the Round of 16, but that would require results in other groups to go Austria’s way.
Denmark vs. Serbia
Group C is delicately poised as we approach Matchday 3. England is first with four points, while Denmark and Slovenia have two points each. Serbia is on just one point so far.
The Danes have drawn both of their games, and they may need to be more clinical in front of goal if they are to win this match. Serbia lost to England on Matchday 1, but a last-gasp strike from Luka Jović earned the team a draw with Slovenia last time out, so it will carry momentum into this crucial game.
Round of 16 scenarios
- Denmark will qualify for the Round of 16 if it beats Serbia.
- If Denmark and Slovenia both draw, they will be level on points and on goal differential, so the team that has scored the most goals will finish second.
- The Danes will be eliminated if they lose this game and Slovenia avoids defeat against England in the other match.
- Serbia will reach the knockout stage if it beats Denmark and Slovenia fails to beat England.
- The Serbians are out if they lose or draw and Slovenia avoids defeat against England.
- If Serbia draws with Denmark and Slovenia loses to England, goal differential will determine which team finishes third. If Serbia finishes third with just two points, that could still mean elimination.
England vs. Slovenia
The Three Lions have one foot in the knockout stage after beating Serbia and then battling to a 1-1 draw with Denmark. However, they will still be determined to win their group, so manager Gareth Southgate is likely to field a strong starting XI in this game.
This is a crucial game for Slovenia. Matjaž Kek’s team has drawn both matches so far, leaving them in a strong position, but they could still face elimination if they lose to England. They may need a big performance from goalkeeper Jan Oblak as they bid to repel England’s Harry Kane on Tuesday.
Round of 16 scenarios
- England will win the group if it beats Slovenia. The Three Lions will also take first if they draw and Denmark fails to beat Serbia.
- Slovenia can clinch a place in the Round of 16 with a victory over England. It can also win the group if it gets the better of the Three Lions and Denmark fails to beat Serbia.
- The Slovenians will finish level on points with Denmark if both teams draw on Matchday 3. In that case, goal differential will determine which team finishes second and which finishes third in Group C.
- If the Slovenians lose, they are likely out, although they could still make the Round of 16 if results in other games go in their favor.
Slovakia vs. Romania
All four teams in Group E are level on three points apiece. Slovakia beat Belgium on Matchday 1, while Romania surged to a 3-0 victory over Ukraine. However, their fortunes flipped on Matchday 2, as Slovakia lost 2-1 to Ukraine and Romania suffered a 2-0 defeat to Belgium.
The situation in this group is precarious. Any team can win the group, and any team can also finish last. Slovakia is the narrow favorite to win this match.
Round of 16 scenarios
- Romania currently has the best goal differential in Group E, so it will reach the Round of 16 if it avoids defeat in this game.
- The Romanians will be eliminated if they lose and Ukraine avoids defeat against Belgium.
- Slovakia needs to beat Romania to be certain of a place in the knockout stage.
- The Slovakians will exit the tournament if they lose and Belgium does not.
Ukraine vs. Belgium
Both of these teams bolstered their chances of reaching the knockout stage by winning on Matchday 2. Ukraine was down 1-0 at halftime against Slovakia, but goals from Mykola Sharapenko and Roman Yaremchuk secured a vital 2-1 victory.
Belgium then posted a dominant 2-0 win against Romania, courtesy of goals from Youri Tielemans and Kevin De Bruyne. The Belgians are the heavy favorites to win this match, but Ukraine showed great determination to beat Slovakia, so this could prove to be a hard-fought contest.
Round of 16 scenarios
- The Belgians have a better goal differential than Slovakia and Ukraine, so they will qualify for the Round of 16 if they avoid defeat in this game.
- They will be out of the competition if they lose and Romania avoids defeat against Slovakia.
- Ukraine will secure a place in the knockout stage if it beats Belgium.
- The Ukrainians will finish third if they draw with Belgium and the Slovakia vs. Romania game does not end in a draw.
- Ukraine will be eliminated with a loss and a Slovakian tie or win.
Czech Republic vs. Turkey
Portugal will finish atop Group F after beating the Czech Republic and Turkey in its first two games. Turkey currently sits in second place, with three points, whereas the Czech Republic and Georgia have just one point each.
Turkey secured an impressive 3-1 win against Georgia on Matchday 1. However, the Turks then lost 3-0 to Portugal, which may have knocked their confidence somewhat. They are now the slight underdogs for this game against a well-drilled Czech team, and it promises to be a nervy occasion for both sets of fans.
Round of 16 scenarios
- Turkey will qualify as the runner-up in Group F by avoiding defeat in this game.
- The Turks will be eliminated if they lose and Georgia beats Portugal.
- The Czech Republic will qualify for the Round of 16 with a win against Turkey and a Georgian loss or tie to Portugal.
- If the Czech Republic and Georgia both win, goal differential will determine which team claims the runner-up spot.
- The Czech Republic will finish third if it draws this game and Georgia fails to beat Portugal.
