Meta reportedly held acquisition talks with Kalshi as it explored ways to accelerate its push into prediction markets.
The news of the talks come shortly following the reports the tech giant is working on its own internal app project, Arena. The discussions did not produce a deal, but they underline how seriously Meta is taking the prediction markets space and how quickly it has moved from experimental product to strategic priority.
NPR reported the exclusive news Tuesday.
Meta reportedly evaluated buying Kalshi in recent months, a move that would have instantly given the company a Commodity Futures Trading Commission‑approved event contract exchange and an existing compliance framework to pair with its social distribution. Instead, Meta has so far stayed with its internal product, a social‑style prediction app.
How Kalshi talks fit into Meta’s plans
NPR’s report said Meta approached Kalshi about a potential acquisition as its leadership was weighing how best to enter prediction markets, and that the conversations included scenarios in which Kalshi’s infrastructure would sit beneath a Meta‑branded front end.
That would have given Meta immediate access to an established exchange, contracts and regulatory approvals instead of building those pieces from scratch.
Meta ultimately opted to not pursue the deal at the terms discussed. Even without a purchase, though, the fact that the company seriously considered acquiring Kalshi shows how much value it places on prediction markets as a future product line.
It also underscores the overlap between Meta’s ambitions and Kalshi’s current positioning. Kalshi has become one of the dominant CFTC‑regulated event contract platforms, especially in sports and macro‑event markets. Now, Meta is exploring how to turn prediction behavior into a new social format.
Huge Kalshi valuation
Meta would have had to pay a pretty penny for the prediction markets leader.
In its latest funding round in May, Kalshi was valued at $22 billion.
Meta, of course, is a company worth more than $1 trillion and has plenty of capital to work with for a deal. But its deals in the past, like Whatsapp and Instagram, have attracted federal regulatory scrutiny.
Meta’s own prediction markets app
Meta is still pressing ahead with Arena, the internal prediction markets app project that emerged last week. The company has a small team building a mobile product that looks and feels like a prediction platform, with users forecasting outcomes in exchange for points rather than cash at launch.
Arena is reportedly being built as a standalone app, but Meta could eventually use Facebook and Instagram to funnel users into it once the product is ready. At least in its initial design, Arena would award points for correct forecasts and function more like a game than a regulated betting product, though Meta has not ruled out adding a real‑money component later.
The Kalshi talks fit neatly into that strategy. Meta could buy an exchange and layer a social product on top, or build the social product first and decide later whether to own the exchange layer.
For Kalshi, the reported interest is a reminder that large strategic buyers are watching the category, even as the company navigates regulatory jurisdiction battles that have shaped the sector more than a year.
