Wall Street is placing a bet on US sports betting technology, where it sees more stability than with the apps that take bets, amid a shifting landscape.
On Monday, Barry Jonas of Truist Securities initiated coverage of Genius Sports and Sportradar with buy ratings, describing the pair as the clear leaders in a “two-horse race” to supply sportsbooks, media companies, and leagues with the data and technology underpinning the US sports betting boom.
The firm’s outlook comes as investors look for more stable ways to capitalize on legal betting’s growth without the volatility tied to consumer-facing operators. Unlike sportsbooks, which face pressure from promotional spend, hold percentages and shifting tax policy, Genius and Sportradar generate mostly fixed, recurring revenue through long-term contracts, on top of benefitting from industrywide gains.
SRAD closed Tuesday at $27.69 a share, down 2.2% from Monday’s open. GENI closed at $10.29 a share, down 4% from Monday’s open.
Genius Sports: league data, live betting
Truist initiated coverage of Genius Sports with a $14 price target, implying roughly 35% upside from current levels. The valuation is based on ~15 times the firm’s 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of nearly $300 million, a 36% three-year compound growth rate that Jonas said is “amongst the highest in our sector.”
Founded in 2000, Genius works with more than 700 organizations worldwide, including sportsbooks, broadcasters and leagues. Its most valuable assets, according to Truist, are its exclusive data rights with the NFL, English Premier League, and NCAA. Those fixed agreements provide insulation from volatility, but also offer upside through performance-based “kickers.”
While US operators have seen margins squeezed by higher taxes and unlucky sports outcomes, Genius generates “mostly fixed, guaranteed” revenue that offers “high visibility and limited volatility,” Truist said.
Truist also took note of Genius leaning into live betting, a higher-growth segment gaining traction in the US. Through fan engagement products like BetVision and FanHub, Genius is expanding its media segment offerings, tied to in-play action.
Management recently advised it sees the segment growing to a $500 million revenue stream over the long term. For context, that’s about five times the media revenue Genius generated in 2023, according to prior company filings.
Sportradar: global scale and upside
Truist also initiated coverage on Sportradar with a $33 price target, based on 16.7 times 2027 projected EBITDA, including anticipated contribution from its pending acquisition of IMG Arena.
Billed as “the largest B2B global sports data and content solutions platform,” Sportradar processes 87 billion bets per year, manages over 65 million active bettors, and covers more than 1 million events annually across 85 sports. The company supports 800 sportsbook operators, 900 media partners, and 400 leagues or federations.
About 68% of Sportradar’s 2024 revenue was recurring, with 77% generated internationally — diversification that Jonas says creates “a moat around the business.”
Truist sees further margin growth through macro and product trends: more in-play betting, a rising share of high-margin parlays, and deeper monetization of media and league partnerships. The firm projects a 27% EBITDA compound annual growth rate through 2027 — with potential upside if global sports betting grows faster than the current ~10% CAGR baseline.
