Note to readers: This content is from Daily Racing Form.
The field is set for the biggest horse race of the year in the United States, the 2025 Kentucky Derby. We are here from Daily Racing Form to help get you ready for this year’s Derby.
Since 1894, DRF has been the main source for horse racing news and all the data you need before you make your bets. Let’s briefly introduce you to the horses in the field, then provide a few suggested wagers for those of you who might need some help betting on the Kentucky Derby.
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The top horse to beat
#8 Journalism
He’s won four straight races, and he enters the Derby with the highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field. Beyer Speed Figures are the ratings that Daily Racing Form assigns to each horse for a specific race so you can compare horses from all over. Journalism has shown the highest ceiling, and he has a really nice running style for the Kentucky Derby.
He likes to place himself mid-pack and has shown he can adapt to different types of races. The knock against him would be that he hasn’t had to run against a field even close to this big. Most of his races out on the West Coast have been against just a few other horses, not the field of 19 opponents he faces on Saturday.
Other top contenders
#17 Sandman & #18 Sovereignty
Let’s group #17 Sandman and #18 Sovereignty, the Arkansas Derby winner and Florida Derby runner-up, together because they will be two of the top betting choices with similar running styles. Both are closers who should be toward the back early and will pass a lot of these horses late in the race. They’re capable of running some of the best races in the field and finishing the fastest, but neither is that fast early in races. That means they could be subject to problems like getting stuck behind other horses, bumping, and traffic. Lots of issues can arise when you have to pass so many others in a 20-horse field.
#7 Luxor Cafe
Luxor Cafe won his last four races in Japan, a couple of which were very impressive victories. We just don’t really have great ways to compare the races he was winning in Japan with the Kentucky Derby and the horses he will face. It makes him a real wild card. He did defeat the other horse in the field from Japan, Admire Daytona. The Japanese runners have been getting more competitive in US races every year, and it won’t be long before a Japan-based horse wins a Kentucky Derby.
#4 Rodriguez
Rodriguez is the Wood Memorial winner for trainer Bob Baffert, who is tied for the all-time lead with six Kentucky Derby wins. This horse has big speed early and the second-fastest Beyer Speed Figure in the field. He is a contender, but there just seem to be a lot of other horses in this race who have similar running styles. Many of them want to lead the way, which could make things difficult.
#9 Burnham Square & #14 Tiztastic
The Blue Grass winner, Burnham Square, is another deep closer. Expect to see him running best late with one of the stronger rallies at the end of the race. Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby, running his best career race in the longest race of his career. It doesn’t seem like he won the toughest of prep races, though, so he might have to improve again.
Horses who could win at big odds
#5 American Promise
American Promise is the Virginia Derby winner, and he has major early speed and can be in the mix throughout. It just might be crowded up front early in this race. American Promise is trained by the Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who has won the Kentucky Derby four times.
#10 Grande
Grande finished second in the Wood Memorial, but that race didn’t set up very well for him. He had to race wide and was chasing Rodriguez, who didn’t face any other front-runners. This race looks like it could set up a lot better for Grande.
#13 Publisher
Publisher is still a maiden, which means he’s never won a race. He finished second in the Arkansas Derby, and that earned him enough qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby.
#16 Coal Battle & #19 Chunk of Gold
Coal Battle is a hard-trying horse who runs for a small barn and is easy to root for. Chunk of Gold was just a $2,500 purchase, facing many horses who were purchased for hundreds of thousands of dollars. He is a true rags-to-riches story even making it into the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Longshots for the Kentucky Derby
#1 Citizen Bull
Citizen Bull was the best of this group of horses last year. He just hasn’t really progressed this year. He has early speed and is trained by Baffert, but his inside post really puts pressure on him in such a huge field.
#2 Neoequos & #3 Final Gambit
Neoequos was one of the last horses to qualify for the Derby. He should be fast early — not sure about late. Final Gambit has never raced on dirt, but based on his other races, he should be way back early and will try to run them down late.
#6 Admire Daytona
Admire Daytona, the second of the Japanese runners, showed early speed in winning his last race. He did lose to Luxor Cafe back in Japan.
#11 Flying Mohawk
Flying Mohawk is co-owned by former MLB All-Star Jayson Werth. He finished second behind Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby Steaks and is also racing on dirt for the first time in the Kentucky Derby.
#12 East Avenue
East Avenue is very quick, and after a couple of disappointing races, he bounced back with a good second-place finish in the Blue Grass. He’s one of the fastest early runners in the field.
#15 Render Judgment
Render Judgment was one of the final horses to qualify. He is trained by Kenny McPeek, who won last year’s Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan.
#20 Owen Almighty
Owen Almighty wasn’t originally supposed to run in the Kentucky Derby because his trainer wasn’t sure he would perform well at the long distance.
My top picks for the Kentucky Derby
- #10 Grande
- #8 Journalism
- #18 Sovereignty
- #7 Luxor Cafe
Other horses I want to use
- #17 Sandman
- #13 Publisher
- #4 Rodriguez
- #19 Chunk of Gold
- #9 Burnham Square
How I’m betting the Kentucky Derby
#10 Grande to win
I’m going to bet Grande to win. His morning-line odds are 20-1, which means we would win 20 times back the money we wager on him if he wins, plus the amount we wager. Remember that in horse racing, the odds can change all the way up until the race starts, but he should wind up somewhere in the range of 15-1.
The Kentucky Derby looks to have a lot of horses this year who are fast early, and Grande could be racing in a really comfortable spot. He has enough natural speed and ability to stay in touch with the early leaders, and he can finish. His jockey, John Velazquez, has won the Derby three times. I’ll put a few dollars to win on Grande.
Trifecta
- First position: 8, 10
- Second position: 7, 8, 10, 18
- Third position: 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 17, 18, 19
For this wager, I will try to correctly select the top three finishers of the race. I need one of each of the numbers in the three groups to finish first, second, and then third. If #8 Journalism or #10 Grande wins, then I can move to the next group of numbers and hope one of them finishes second. In this case, that’s numbers 7, 8, 10, or 18.
If one of those numbers finishes second, I have a lot of options for horses who could finish third, and we win the bet. Any of 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 17, 18, or 19 in the third spot would make me a winner. This is a $1 trifecta wager that costs $42 to bet and could yield back thousands if the best-case scenario were to happen.
Hopefully, we were able to help lead you in the right direction, but we just scratched the surface here. There’s a lot more help for you at DRF.com. That website has all the major news, horse racing data, and help you’ll need before you bet the races.
There are Kentucky Derby packages that provide you with incredible data, including betting strategies from experts. That way, you can see how they’ll be betting throughout Kentucky Derby Day and you can use some of their suggestions.
Grab a DRF Derby Package
Looking to get in the action ahead of the Kentucky Derby? Click our exclusive link below to check out DRF’s Kentucky Derby package ahead of the race.
