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Eight Japan-based horses have competed in the Kentucky Derby, and none have won. But Forever Young came awfully close last year, finishing third by a head after getting bumped in deep stretch by second-place finisher Sierra Leone.
Will 2025 be the year that a Japanese shipper makes history? Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, the latter a son of American Pharoah and winner of four straight races, each worked five furlongs Tuesday at Churchill Downs, and the results were inconclusive.
“Anyone hoping to get a better line on the two Japanese contenders . . . from their first serious local workouts Tuesday at Churchill Downs may have left the track even more confused than when they walked in.”
Mike Welsch – Daily Racing Form clocker
As Welsch noted, neither horse was asked for his best Tuesday after completing the trip overseas, and Luxor Cafe’s jockey, Joao Moreira, wasn’t the least bit concerned.
“The traveling [from Japan] obviously did take a little bit out of him, but he’s feeling so well, eating everything,” Moreira told DRF’s David Grening. “The connections seem to be very happy, as I am. The track work this morning indicates that. Obviously, it’s a new place for him. He was having a good look around. I think that’s normal. I really can’t fault the way he went this morning.”
As for the California contingent, Baeza — the Derby’s lone also-eligible, who needs a scratch by Friday morning to get into the race — enjoyed a similarly leisurely workout on Monday, covering five furlongs in 1:02.25. That was quite the contrast to Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull, who went five furlongs in a blistering 58.47 seconds despite fanning a bit wide off the turn.
In a way, Baeza’s wait-and-see status is the result of hard luck. Had six or more horses been entered in the Santa Anita Derby, his second-place finish in that race would have earned him 50 qualifying points and put him in the body of the field. But due to a small field of five and a new wrinkle in the points system, he received only 37.5 points and is on the outside looking in.
“Racing has a lot of ups and downs and a lot of surprises,” said Baeza trainer John Shirreffs. “We are not eliminated yet, but like they say, hope springs eternal.”
As Grening notes, if Baeza does draw into the race, he will most likely break on the extreme outside from post 20 — which might not be as bad as it sounds. Supreme longshot Rich Strike drew into the 2023 Derby the day before the race and won from post 20, and Big Brown won the 2008 Derby from post 20. In 2019, eventual winner Country House drew post 20 but ultimately broke from post 18 after a pair of scratches.
Country House’s victory was not sealed until several minutes after the race, when Maximum Security, who crossed the wire first, was disqualified by stewards for interference and Country House was elevated from second to first. The controversial result gave Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott his only Derby victory.
In this year’s Derby, Mott will saddle Sovereignty, the 5-1 second choice on the morning line. Riding on that saddle will be Mott’s longtime collaborator, jockey Junior Alvarado, who hopes Sovereignty will carry him to his first Derby score on Saturday.
“Nothing bothers him,” Alvarado told DRF’s Marcus Hersh. “He’s on the quiet side, doesn’t take too much pressure with the things around him. When I came out to ride him in the Fountain of Youth and I saw him, he looked like the dad of the other horses. He’s big, but he’s not awkward big. He does things very easily. I know Mr. Mott hasn’t gotten to the bottom of him.”
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