The Kentucky Derby, or “Run for the Roses,” is set to captivate fans and bettors at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3. Our table of top horses to watch highlights standout contenders, their recent form, and key factors like jockey skill that could shape the race. Whether you’re betting or cheering, dive into our data or our how-to-bet Kentucky Derby guide to stay ahead and make informed picks for the iconic event.
| Horse & Sire | Jockey | Odds | Last Race | Finishing Position | Best Beyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journalism & Curlin | Umberto Rispoli | 5*2 | Santa Anita Derby | 1st by 3/4 | 108 |
| Sovereignty & Mischief | Junior Alvarado | 8*1 | Florida Derby | 2nd by 1 1/4 | 95 |
| Luxor Cafe & American Pharoah | Joao Moreira | 10*1 | Fukuryu Stakes | 1st by 5 | N/A |
| Tappan Street & Into Mischief | Luis Saez | 10*1 | Florida Derby | 1st by 1 1/4 | 94 |
| Rodriguez & Authentic | Mike Smith | 12*1 | Wood Memorial | 1st by 3 1/2 | 101 |
| Sandman & Tapit | Jose Ortiz | 12*1 | Arkansas Derby | 1st by 2 1/2 | 99 |
| Burnham Square & Liam’s Map | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 15*1 | Blue Grass | 1st by nose | 96 |
| Coal Battle & Coal Front | Juan Vargas | 15*1 | Arkansas Derby | 3rd by 7 | 91 |
| Grande & Curlin | John Velazquez | 15*1 | Wood Memorial | 2nd by 3 1/2 | 97 |
| Citizen Bull & Into Mischief | Martin Garcia | 20*1 | Santa Anita Derby | 4th by 9 3/4 | 98 |
| East Avenue & Medaglia d’Oro | Manny Franco | 20*1 | Blue Grass | 2nd by nose | 96 |
| Publisher & American Pharoah | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20*1 | Arkansas Derby | 2nd by 2 1/2 | 95 |
| Tiztastic & Tiz the Law | Joel Rosario | 20*1 | Louisiana Derby | 1st by 2 1/4 | 95 |
| Admire Daytona & Drefong | Christopher Lemaire | 30*1 | U.A.E. Derby | 1st by nose | N/A |
| American Promise & Justify | Nik Juarez | 30*1 | Virginia Derby | 1st by 7 3/4 | 95 |
| Clunk of Gold & Preservationist | Jareth Loveberry | 30*1 | Louisiana Derby | 2nd by 2 1/4 | 92 |
| Final Gambit & Not This Time | Luan Machado | 30*1 | Jeff Ruby Steaks | 1st by 3 1/2 | 90 |
| Flying Mohawk & Karakontie | Joe Ramos | 50*1 | Jeff Ruby Steaks | 2nd by 3 1/2 | 84 |
| Owen Almighty & Speightstown | Javier Castellano | 50*1 | Blue Grass | 6th by 4 1/4 | 93 |
| Built & Hard Spun | Undecided | 50*1 | Louisiana Derby | 5th by 7 1/2 | 92 |
Analysis and comments for top horses
Below, Brad Free and David Argona of the Daily Racing Form break down each horse’s most recent race along with some key insights.
- Journalism: Fast figs, gained seasoning in eventful win at Santa Anita, wants 1 1/4 mile, legit fave but not invincible. Derby’s favorite doesn’t appear to have any significant weaknesses; it’s tough to deny if he gets a fair trip.
- Sovereignty: Virtually paired career-best fig finishing well for second in Florida Derby, ideal Run for Roses prep. I would have liked to see him run a bit faster in the Florida Derby, but I still must respect his strong late kick.
- Luxor Cafe: Four straight wins in Japan; stakes two back flattered when 4-3 finishers ran 1-3 UAE Derby. Displayed awesome turn of foot in Fukuryu, same race T O Password won prior to finishing fifth in the 2024 Derby.
- Tappan Street: Fast, versatile, smart colt will try to win Kentucky Derby in fourth career start a la Big Brown, Justify, Mage. Has gotten much more professional with each start; it bodes well for overcoming a lack of seasoning.
- Rodriguez: Ran to improved workouts, wiring Wood; the main question is if he is one-dimensional, needs the lead. Finally got a chance to shine at Aqueduct, but with a perfect setup; faces a tougher pace scenario here.
- Sandman: Late-runner benefited from suicidal pace in final prep, hopes for another 45-change half to set up rally. Finally ran a respectable Beyer, but didn’t love the way he once again was swerving in the stretch.
- Burnham Square: Beneficial pace collapse led to victory in Blue Grass Stakes, which did not appear all that great visually. I wanted to see him finish a bit stronger at Keeneland, given the beneficial setup; at least he’ll get the distance.
- Coal Battle: Did the clock strike midnight for the Cinderella story at Oaklawn Park, or was he too close to the pace/moved too soon? Making the first move into extreme pace Arkansas Derby is not ideal; we still have concerns about added distance.
- Grande: Wood runner-up ran as well or better than Wood winner; Grande was compromised by a wide trip. I agree with Brad on the Wood trip, but I don’t love that Pletcher is planning just one workout into the Derby.
- Citizen Bull: Misfired in last, reportedly blinkers off Kentucky Derby, tough task to carry speed versus quick East Avenue, Owen Almighty. Exposed in Santa Anita Derby when unable to secure easy lead; blinkers off may be a sign they’ll rate this time.
- East Avenue: Sent hard to make lead and got nailed in Blue Grass; Kentucky Derby rabbit for the same owner’s Sovereignty? Need-the-lead type is important addition to this race as he significantly alters the pace scenario.
- Publisher: Benefited by closers-friendly race flow at Oaklawn Park; seven-start maiden not impossible if pace collapses. Plodder got similar trip to Sandman and couldn’t stay with that rival late; maiden will be a longshot.
- Tiztastic: Late-runner put it all together in Louisiana Derby that set up perfectly, will finish fast in Kentucky Derby. Got the right trip in fast-paced Fair Grounds victory; clearly wants to run all day but will need racing luck.
- Admire Daytona: Front-runner’s UAE Derby validates Luxor Cafe, who beat Admire Daytona decisively in Japan. Did well to withstand contested early pace in Dubai; utilized stalking style in prior Japan starts.
- American Promise: Dominated second-tier field in one-turn nine-furlong race at Colonial Downs, will face a daunting class hike. Sustained honest pace in dominant Virginia Derby score; working like he’ll be a major pace player here.
- Clunk of Gold: Lightly raced closer produced more tactical speed in Louisiana Derby; ran better, paired his career-best fig. $2,500 yearling is an overachiever; ran better than looks in both preps; will need to improve again.
- Final Gambit: Synthetic-surface specialist reportedly worked well on dirt since Turfway Park upset, still seems like a reach. Ruby win was visually impressive, but pedigree leans turf, and he lacks any early speed whatsoever.
- Flying Mohawk: Turf-synthetic specialist banked 50 points at Turfway Park but has never raced on dirt nor run particularly fast. Ruby runner-up finish puts him in the field, but making dirt debut in the Derby is a daunting task.
- Owen Almighty: Curious addition to Kentucky Derby field after nowhere finish at Keeneland; would fit much better in Pat Day Mile. Figures to be another pace factor; hard to build much of a case for him as a serious contender.
- Built: Qualifies on points but sure seems distance-challenged, another who belongs in Pat Day Mile. Hard to see a path to victory for this one; shares common owner with Derby fave Journalism.
