Genius Sports’ betting business kept rolling in Q4, even as the company’s bottom line came in well below Wall Street expectations.
Genius Sports pulled in $176 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, up 38% from a year ago, driven by a 48% surge in Betting Technology, Content & Services revenue. For the full year, betting revenue hit $354.9 million — accounting for nearly 70% of Genius’ total haul. Price hikes on contract renewals helped drive those gains, as sports betting operators continue to lean into official data and live betting.
Still, Genius missed profit estimates by a wide margin, posting a Q4 net loss of $0.12 per share and an annual loss of $0.27 per share — far below the break-even quarter and narrower full-year loss analysts had penciled in.
Genius Sports shares rally
Investors shrugged off the wider-than-expected loss, instead rallying behind the company’s 2025 outlook, which calls for 21% revenue growth. Shares jumped 12% Tuesday, closing at $9.31 after rising as much as 15% earlier in the session.
“I’m expecting growth throughout the year, really, and … it’ll be particularly strong in the first half of the year I think coming from betting,” CFO Nicholas Taylor told analysts on a conference call Tuesday.
US sales double for Genius
The company renewed or extended deals with every top US sportsbook in 2024, helping drive a 51% year-over-year increase in US sales, with contract renewals locking in higher pricing and expanded data services. Genius also secured more favorable terms, shifting a larger portion of revenue to fixed minimum guarantees, which reduced exposure to bookmaker win margin volatility — a major concern after a historically unfavorable NFL season.
In-play wagering, which carries a premium revenue share compared to pregame betting, made up 30% of all NFL betting in Q4, boosting revenue and margins. The company also expanded its official data portfolio, giving sportsbooks access to a broader range of markets under long-term contracts.
European revenue climbed 26% during the quarter, benefiting from both new sportsbook deals and increasing adoption of live betting. With sportsbooks continuing to shift their focus to in-play markets, Genius is positioning itself as a key technology provider that can drive engagement through official data integrations and live-streaming innovations.
Genius reported $82 million in operating cash flow for 2024, more than five times what it generated the prior year. That financial flexibility has enabled continued investment in products like BetVision, an interactive live-streaming experience designed to drive in-play betting engagement. It plans to launch BetVision for international soccer in Q2 and basketball in Q3 of this year.
Aggressive M&A approach
The company’s strong cash flow position enables Genius to be more aggressive with investments, especially as market conditions tighten, CEO Mark Locke added.
“There are some businesses that are struggling. Some of them are … frankly, not very attractive. Others are more attractive. And the prices of some of those businesses are coming to a point where actually you’re thinking they could be additive to us at the right price, and we’re well-positioned,” Locke said.
Investors bullish on long-term outlook
The company still has work to do on profitability, but for now, the market seems to be buying into its long-term positioning with its betting segment leading the way.
Genius landed among the top-performing US stocks Tuesday, even as broader markets slumped. The company expects to bring in $620 million in revenue and $125 million in adjusted EBITDA this year, a forecast that aided analysts at Needham in raising its target price on the stock to $13.
One looming test: Genius’ upcoming renewal for English Premier League data rights, a key pillar of its betting business. But with sportsbooks doubling down on live betting and data-driven pricing, Genius is betting its tech and exclusive deals will keep it ahead of the competition.
