Major League Baseball is rumored to be working on a new pitcher rule that could shape and or eliminate betting markets across the board. With this potential new rule, starting pitchers would have to go a minimum of six innings, barring some exceptions.
In the past couple of years, MLB has seen significant changes, with multiple new rules causing debate among fans, players, and owners. The hot topic last year was the pitch clock, which caused controversy around pitcher injuries and more.
If MLB were to add a six-inning rule, how might that affect some of the current options at baseball betting sites?
What are the exceptions to the rumored rule?
The potential new rule would aim to “prioritize starting pitching” while still keeping injuries in mind. Below are the reported exceptions to the six-inning rule. This means that if MLB were to implement this rule, and one of the following took place, a team could replace its starting pitcher before the sixth inning.
- A pitcher throws 100 pitches.
- A pitcher gives up four or more earned runs.
- A pitcher gets injured (with a required stint on the injured list to avoid manipulation).
The rule itself is already gaining some steam on social media as users have begun to look at it from both sides. Most pitchers would not see a large change in their day-to-day operation, while some teams and pitchers would need to change their strategy.
The use of the “opener” has become more and more prevalent in the game today, and this would eliminate that strategy.
What odds markets would this affect?
If you sift through the MLB odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, you can already see a handful of markets that a rule change like this could impact. Below are a few examples:
- First five innings: What has typically been a line that takes into account the strength of a starter, this line could shift if all pitchers must go six innings.
- Total pitcher outs: This line could see an instant increase if pitchers must stay in for six innings.
- Total pitcher strikeouts: The further a pitcher goes, the more opportunity for both sides of this bet. The elite starters would likely rack up the same amount or more of strikeouts, while lower-tier pitchers’ numbers could stay the same or even fall as they dial back their effort to remain in the game longer.
Beyond the above bets, you would expect to see lines change across the board for most pitcher props and certain game lines. A six-inning rule would have a major impact not only on the game but also on how oddsmakers set lines.
