Paraguay vs. Brazil Copa America Betting Preview: Live Odds, Props, & Expert Analysis

Written By

Updated on

Paraguay vs. Brazil Copa America Betting Preview: Live Odds, Props, & Expert Analysis

Brazil (-295) will attempt to return to its winning ways when it takes on Paraguay at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Friday. The Seleçao began their Copa America campaign with a disappointing 0-0 draw against Costa Rica earlier this week. Brazil was a -1000 favorite to win that game, but forwards Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, and Raphinha could not find a breakthrough.

Manager Dorival Júnior will need to rally his troops in time to face the Paraguayans (+900), who are last in Group D after losing 2-1 to Colombia. Brazil boasts a terrific head-to-head record against Paraguay, so it is the clear favorite in Copa America odds to win this game. However, the forwards will need to be far more clinical in front of goal than they were against Costa Rica.

Paraguay vs. Brazil live odds & lines

Paraguay vs. Brazil player props

Vinícius Júnior

  • To score a goal:
  • To score at least two goals:
  • To score the most goals:


  • To score a goal:
  • To score from outside the box:
  • To score a header:
  • To assist a goal:

Paraguay might have to keep Paquetá quiet to win

Paraguay could not deal with veteran playmaker James Rodríguez against Colombia. He set up both of Colombia’s goals and was named man of the match. The Paraguayans adopted a 4-3-3 formation, and Rodríguez was regularly able to find pockets of space between their midfield and defense. He could then create chances for his teammates, and that ultimately caused Paraguay to lose the game.

Lucas Paquetá plays a similar role for Brazil. He was the Seleçao’s most dangerous player against Costa Rica, as he hit the woodwork with a long-range strike and then missed a couple of decent chances in the closing stage of the game. 

Brazil must improve in the final third of the pitch

The Seleçao are missing their star player, as Neymar is sidelined with a knee injury. However, the team has a wealth of attacking talent at its disposal, so Brazil was expected to beat Costa Rica by a comfortable margin on Matchday 1. Some sportsbooks were offering odds of just -135 on Brazil -2.5, but the forwards were wasteful in the final third of the pitch.

Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, and Raphinha formed an attacking trio, with Paquetá pulling the strings in the No. 10 role, but they could not break the deadlock. Dorival Júnior responded by sending on teenage sensation Endrick, Girona forward Sávio, and Arsenal winger Gabriel Martinelli in the second half. However, they also struggled to unlock a well-drilled Costa Rican defense. Brazil’s forwards will need to be sharper and more incisive if the Samba Boys are to beat Paraguay in this game.

Paraguay expected starting 11

Goalkeeper Rodrigo Moríngo started for Paraguay on Matchday 1. He was not at fault for either of Colombia’s goals, so he could keep his place. Manager Daniel Garnero favors a 4-3-3 formation, and he is unlikely to change it, so we could see Matías Espinoza, Omar Alderete, Fabián Balbuena, and Gustavo Velázquez form a back four.

Hernesto Caballero, Andrés Cubas, and Matthías Villasanti started in midfield against Colombia, but they were overrun at times. Alternative options include Matias Rojas and Damián Bobadilla if the manager decides to mix things up. Brighton winger Julio Enciso scored against Colombia, so he should keep his place in attack, with Newcastle’s Miguel Almirón on the other flank and Alex Arce up front.

Brazil expected starting 11

Brazil had no problems on defense against Costa Rica, so the manager may stick with Alisson in goal and a back four of Danilo, Éder Militão, Marquinhos, and Guilherme Arana. Bruno Guimarães and João Gomes also started on Matchday 1, and they could also keep their places in the team, as there are no obvious upgrades in the current squad.

Raphinha and Rodrygo both scored in Brazil’s last game against Paraguay, which took place in February 2022. The Seleçao won that game 4-0, and they are unbeaten in nine matches against the Paraguayans. The manager may stick with Raphinha and Rodrygo alongside Vinícius Júnior in attack, with Paquetá sitting behind them. However, he could opt to start Endrick if he wants to play a more traditional striker. That would allow Vinícius to shift out to the wing, and either Raphinha or Rodrygo would need to be dropped.

Photo by Associated Press