After six sluggish games, the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers now meet in a win-or-go-home Game 7 — the first occurrence of the 2024 playoffs.
There is a common belief that the pace grinds to a halt and defenses shut down offenses during Game 7s; however, does recent history actually corroborate this notion? Plus, is the general public also correct about home teams possessing a significant advantage in a Game 7 situation?
Historic Game 7 trends
Over the past 10 NBA postseasons (2014-23), there have been 34 instances where a series went seven games. Totaling the first six games of all 34 series resulted in an average score of 207.9 points per game and a median of 207.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Game 7 had an average score of 199.1 points per game and a median of 197.5 points per game. That’s essentially a 10-point drop for the final game compared to the previous six contests of the series — a mammoth difference.
The under went 22-12 in those games, which is a 64.7% hit rate. A -110 line has an implied probability of roughly 52%, so there has been about a 12% edge for betting unders in Game 7s over the past 10 seasons. In other words, the perception that defenses rule the day during a Game 7 appears to be valid.
Additionally, the home team prevailed in 20 of 34 Game 7s, or 58% of the time. Given that they are the superior seed and typically favored with a juiced moneyline, blindly betting the home team has not yielded quality results over the past 10 years.
Overall, the under hitting in a Game 7 has been the common trend from recent NBA history.
Magic vs. Cavaliers odds
Online sportsbooks are fully aware of the under trends and have adjusted accordingly. The total was 206 points for the first two games of the series before dropping to 202 points across the next four contests. Now, Game 7 has a total line of around a measly 194 points, which is a drastic change.
Both teams possess the defensive tools to neutralize each other’s offense. Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, and Orlando’s wings can slow down Cleveland’s pick-and-roll while bothering their isolation scorers. On the other side, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are elite rim protectors who create a formidable last line of defense against Orlando’s slashers. Based on recent Game 7 trends and the involved squads, this win-or-go-home game may be extremely low-scoring.
BetMGM Insight
Did online sportsbooks adjust the line too severely? The public seems to think so based on their betting. Per BetMGM on May 5, 81% of the tickets and 80% of the handle are on the over. Recent history indicates a scoring drop in Game 7, but perhaps online sportsbooks overestimated the fall.
