NBA First Basket Prop Preview: Data, Insights & Key Stats For The NBA Playoffs

One of the more popular basketball bets during this era of NBA betting is the first basket prop bet where bettors predict which player will score the first basket of a game.

It’s worth noting, when learning how to bet on the NBA, that some online sportsbooks, such as BetMGM, do not count free throws. If this is the case, then this particular NBA bet will be called first field goal instead of first basket.

Online sportsbooks like FanDuel also offer the ability to bet on the exact methods of the first basket. For example, one could wager that Kevin Durant will score the first basket via dunk, layup, other, free throw, or 3-pointer.

BetMGM first basket trends

As far as betting trends at NBA betting sites, according to BetMGM this week, the first field goal prop was the fourth most common market for NBA games behind only spreads, moneylines, and totals. To further delve into the specific branches, the team’s first field goal prop was far more popular with the public than the first field goal exact methods prop.

NBA first basket scorer odds

Below are the first-basket odds for all games today. If the player you wish to wager on is not listed, simply search their name, and their odds will populate.

First quarter stats to know

The following chart contains first quarter stats for the regular season. It shows the ranking of the proportion of opponent attempts allowed based on the shot location. For example, based on all the first quarter field goal attempts that the Boston Celtics allowed this year, a mere 24.4% came from the restricted area. This was the third-lowest mark in the league. Therefore, the Celtics rank 28th in that category. In other words, if a team has a low number (third, fifth, etc.), the team allowed a proportionally large number of shots from that area.

How does this inform the first basket prop? For example, Indiana ranked second in the restricted area category and 30th in the corner 3-point category. Therefore, it may behoove a bettor to favor opposing players who score from around the basket instead of catch-and-shoot players.

Tipoff win percentage, team first FGA%, and other factors such as injuries are also things to consider before betting, but this table is a piece of the puzzle.

Heat vs. Celtics

Tipoff: Kristaps Porzingis prevailed 3-0 versus Bam Adebayo in the tip this season. Although Adebayo is an excellent jumper, Porzingis remains arguably the best in the league.

Regular season matchups: Bam Adebayo took Miami’s first field goal attempt in two of the three games between the teams this season.

First quarter stats to know: 

• Miami allowed the fourth highest paint (non-RA) attempt percentage and eighth highest corner 3-point attempt percentage. The Heat shut down restricted area attempts, though.
• Boston surrendered the eighth highest corner 3-point attempt percentage, paint (non-RA) attempt percentage, and midrange attempt percentage. However, the Celtics allowed the third lowest restricted area attempt percentage.

First basket data: Game first FGA percentage refers to how frequently a player took the first shot of the game when that player started. Meanwhile, team first FGA percentage shows how often the player took the first shot of the game for that player’s team when they started. For example, a player who secured the first attempt in one of his five starts would have a game first FGA percentage of 20%. 

76ers vs. Knicks

Tipoff: Joel Embiid went 1-0 against Isaiah Hartenstein this season. Hartenstein has been one of the least effective jumpers since securing the starting role, so Embiid owns a considerable advantage. 

Regular season matchup: During the 76ers-Knicks game, Jalen Brunson took the first shot after a Philadelphia turnover, and Joel Embiid had the second attempt. 

First quarter stats to know: 

• Philadelphia gave up the ninth highest restricted area attempt percentage and 11th highest paint (non-RA) attempt percentage. However, it allowed the fifth lowest 3-point attempt percentage.
• New York surrendered the fifth highest restricted area attempt percentage but had the second lowest paint (non-RA) attempt percentage. Opponents also produced the third highest corner 3-point attempt percentage against the Knicks.

First basket data: 

Pacers vs. Bucks

Tipoff: Brook Lopez was 4-1 against Myles Turner this season. The Pacers big man has struggled all year to control the tipoff, while Lopez has been his usual effective self.

Regular season matchups: In the five games between these two teams this season, Damian Lillard and Bruce Brown both took the first shot of the game twice, and Giannis Antetokounmpo accomplished the feat once. 

First quarter stats to know: 

• Indiana bled the second-highest restricted area attempt percentage and sixth-highest paint (non-RA) attempt percentage this season. The Pacers shut down the arc, though, as opponents easily had the lowest 3-point attempt percentage versus them. 
• Milwaukee also defended the arc well this season, giving up the sixth-lowest 3-point attempt percentage. Because Lopez plays a deep drop when defending the pick-and-roll, it opens up clean pull-up jumpers for guards. As a result, the Bucks surrendered the highest midrange attempt percentage. 

First basket data: 

Magic vs. Cavaliers

Tipoff: Jarrett Allen went 2-0 versus Wendell Carter Jr. in the tip this season, which is not shocking considering that Allen is a premier jumper.

Regular season matchups: Max Strus took the first shot of the game via layup in both of the above matchups this season. 

First quarter stats to know: 

• Orlando allowed the second-highest midrange attempt percentage, 13th-highest restricted area attempt percentage, and 10th-highest two-point attempt percentage this season. 
• Cleveland, meanwhile, gave up the seventh-highest corner 3-point percentage but the second-lowest above-the-break 3-point attempt percentage. Additionally, opponents produced the eighth-highest restricted area attempt percentage. 

First basket data: 

Pelicans vs. Thunder

Tipoff: Chet Holmgren was 2-1 against Jonas Valanciunas this season.

Regular season matchups: A Holmgren 3-point attempt was Oklahoma City’s first field goal attempt in all three matchups between the teams this season.

First quarter stats to know: 

• New Orleans allowed the largest above-the-break 3-point attempt percentage this season.
• Oklahoma City, meanwhile, surrendered the highest corner 3-point attempt percentage and seventh-lowest midrange attempt percentage.

First basket data: 

Lakers vs. Nuggets

Tipoff: Nikola Jokic was 2-1 versus Anthony Davis this season.

Regular season matchups: Jokic took Denver’s first attempt in all three games. 

First quarter stats to know: 

• Los Angeles gave up the ninth-highest above-the-break 3-point attempt percentage and eighth-lowest restricted area attempt percentage this season. It’s clear teams are not eager to challenge Anthony Davis. 
• Denver allowed the second-lowest 3-point attempt percentage. Instead of raining down threes, opponents had the sixth-highest midrange attempt percentage and 10th-highest paint (non-RA) attempt percentage. 

First basket data: 

Suns vs. Timberwolves

Tipoff: Jusuf Nurkic went 2-1 against Rudy Gobert this season.

Regular season matchups: Different players took each team’s first shot of the game every time. 

First quarter stats to know: 

• Phoenix surrendered the fourth-highest midrange attempt percentage this season and landed near the middle of the pack for every other category. 
• Minnesota allowed the seventh-highest midrange attempt percentage and seventh-lowest 3-point attempt percentage.   

First basket data: 

Mavericks vs. Clippers

Tipoff: Daniel Gafford and Ivica Zubac did not face off this season. Gafford is not a quality jumper, but Zubac was arguably the least effective one in the NBA this year.

Regular season matchup: These teams did not play each other after the trade deadline when Dallas radically changed its roster. 

First quarter stats to know: 

• Dallas allowed the fifth-highest corner 3-point attempt percentage and second-highest midrange attempt percentage this season. However, its overhauled roster at the trade deadline means these numbers may need a grain of salt.  
• Los Angeles gave up the eighth-highest 3-point attempt percentage and fourth-lowest restricted area attempt percentage.

First basket data: