The goal of the first basket prop is to predict which player will score the first basket of the game. It’s a popular NBA betting option due to the long odds and quick results.
The matter of free throws is a key detail to note when learning how to bet on basketball. Some online sportsbooks, such as BetMGM and DraftKings, do not include free throws and instead label the prop as the “first field goal.” In other words, look out for whether the prop is titled first basket or first field goal.
Meanwhile, exact methods are also a subset of the prop. Online sportsbooks like BetMGM and DraftKings offer lines on whether the first field goal will be for two or three points, while FanDuel offers more specific methods (dunk, layup, other, free throw, 3-pointer).
BetMGM first field goal trends
According to one NBA sportsbook, BetMGM last week, the first field goal prop finished as the fourth most common NBA bet. Only the big three — spreads, moneylines, and totals — edged it out. Finally, there were far more bets on which player would score his team’s first field goal than on the player’s exact method. For example, “Jalen Brunson first Knicks field goal” would be more popular than “Brunson first field goal exact two-point.”
NBA first basket scorer odds
The table below contains current NBA playoff odds. Search any name in the bar, and that player’s odds will populate.
First-quarter stats to know
The following chart shows first-quarter stats from the regular season, with a ranking of the percentage of opponent attempts each team allowed based on shot location.
For example, the Denver Nuggets allowed only 8.9% of opponent’s first-quarter field goal attempts this season to come from the corner. That was the third lowest rate, so they rank 28th in this category. If a team has a high number in the chart (second, fourth, sixth, etc.), that means it surrendered a large proportion of attempts from this area relative to the league.
As another example, Indiana bled first quarter restricted area attempts at the second largest rate, so the Pacers are “2” in that particular column.
| | Restricted Area | Paint (non-RA) | Midrange | Corner 3PT | Above the Break 3PT | 2PT | 3PT |
| Boston Celtics | 28 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 17 | 14 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 8 | 26 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 9 | 23 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 20 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 15 |
| Denver Nuggets | 16 | 10 | 4 | 28 | 25 | 2 | 29 |
| Indiana Pacers | 2 | 6 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 1 | 30 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 19 | 12 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 8 | 24 |
| New York Knicks | 5 | 29 | 16 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 13 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 15 | 22 | 24 | 1 | 17 | 24 | 7 |
How can this chart potentially inform first basket betting? Based on the Pacers column, it may be wise to target paint scorers instead of spot-up shooters given the fact that Indiana ranks 30th in both the corner and above-the-break 3-pointer columns.
However, tipoff win percentage, game first FGA%, team first FGA%, and other context such as injuries can also be important parts of the equation.
Cavaliers vs. Celtics
Tipoff: Kristaps Porzingis was 2-1 versus Jarrett Allen in the tip this season. Allen is an elite jumper. However, Porzingis remains arguably the best.
Regular season matchups: Jaylen Brown had Boston’s first attempt in two of the three games between these clubs this season.
First quarter stats to know:
- Cleveland gave up the sixth-highest midrange attempt percentage, seventh-highest corner attempt percentage, and eighth-highest restricted area attempt percentage. Opponents struggled mightily to shoot from above the break, though, especially off the dribble.
- Boston allowed the eighth-highest paint (non-restricted area), midrange, and above-the-break attempt percentages. The Celtics protected the restricted area and corners superbly.
First basket data: Game first FGA percentage indicates how often a player had the first shot of the game during that player’s starts. For example, if Jonas Valanciunas secured it in 10 of 50 starts, then he would own a game first FGA% of 20%. On the other hand, team first FGA% is how often a player took the first shot for his team in games that that player started.
| | Game First FGA% | Team First FGA% | Starts |
| Max Strus | 22.8% | 25.7% | 70 |
| Jaylen Brown | 21.4% | 31.4% | 70 |
| Jarrett Allen | 16.8% | 24.6% | 77 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 16.3% | 32.7% | 55 |
| Jrue Holiday | 15.9% | 20.2% | 69 |
| Al Horford | 15.1% | 18.1% | 33 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 14% | 24.5% | 57 |
| Evan Mobley | 10% | 16% | 50 |
| Jayson Tatum | 9.4% | 18.9% | 74 |
| Darius Garland | 8.7% | 12.2% | 57 |
| Derrick White | 6.8% | 8.2% | 73 |
Pacers vs. Knicks
Tipoff: Myles Turner went 1-0 against Isaiah Hartenstein. Although Turner typically struggles to control the tip, Hartenstein was one of the worst jumpers all year.
Regular season matchups: Jalen Brunson took New York’s first shot in two of three matchups versus Indiana, which is not surprising considering he easily paced the Knicks in team first FGA%.
First quarter stats to know:
- Indiana largely neutralized the 3-point line but gave up the second-highest restricted area attempt percentage and sixth-highest paint (non-RA) attempt percentage.
- New York surrendered the third-highest corner attempt percentage and fifth-highest restricted area attempt percentage.
First basket data:
| | Game First FGA% | Team First FGA% | Starts |
| Jalen Brunson | 22% | 44.1% | 77 |
| Myles Turner | 16.8% | 36.3% | 77 |
| OG Anunoby | 13% | 30.4% | 23 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 8.5% | 31.9% | 47 |
| Pascal Siakam | 7.3% | 17% | 41 |
| Josh Hart | 7.1% | 9.5% | 42 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 6.3% | 12.7% | 47 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 4.7% | 11.1% | 42 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 4% | 12.2% | 63 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | 1.4% | 7.3% | 68 |
Mavericks vs. Thunder
Tipoff: Chet Holmgren prevailed 2-0 over Daniel Gafford this season, although it’s worth noting that one of those wins came while Gafford was on the Wizards.
Regular season matchups: In the sole game between these two clubs with Gafford on the Mavericks, Holmgren had the first shot.
First quarter stats to know:
- Dallas allowed the second-highest midrange attempt percentage and fifth-highest corner attempt percentage.
- Oklahoma City gave up the highest corner attempt percentage.
First basket data:
| | Game First FGA% | Team First FGA% | Starts |
| Kyrie Irving | 18.9% | 31% | 58 |
| Josh Giddey | 16.2% | 27.5% | 80 |
| Chet Holmgren | 14.6% | 30.4% | 82 |
| Luka Doncic | 11.4% | 28.5% | 70 |
| Luguentz Dort | 10.1% | 16.4% | 79 |
| Jalen Williams | 9.8% | 21.1% | 71 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 4.5% | 12.1% | 66 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 4% | 8% | 75 |
| PJ Washington | 3.5% | 14.2% | 28 |
| Daniel Gafford | 0% | 14.2% | 21 |
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
Tipoff: Nikola Jokic is 3-1 versus Rudy Gobert this season, including game one.
Regular season matchups: Nikola Jokic had Denver’s first field goal attempt in two of the four games between these squads this season.
First quarter stats to know:
- Minnesota allowed the seventh-highest midrange attempt percentage and eighth-highest two-point attempt percentage.
- Denver surrendered the second-highest two-point attempt percentage. More specifically, it gave up the fourth-highest midrange and 10th-highest paint (non-RA) attempt percentage.
First basket data:
| Game First FGA% | Team First FGA% | Starts | |
| Nikola Jokic | 22.7% | 37.9% | 79 |
| Mike Conley | 11.8% | 23.6% | 76 |
| Jamal Murray | 11.8% | 18.6% | 59 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 11.2% | 29% | 62 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 11.2% | 21.1% | 71 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 11.1% | 18.5% | 81 |
| Aaron Gordon | 8.2% | 12.3% | 73 |
| Anthony Edwards | 6.4% | 11.5% | 78 |
| Rudy Gobert | 3.9% | 19.7% | 76 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 2.6% | 14.4% | 76 |
