As Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs approaches, a major focal point will inevitably be Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Not only has Mahomes been a key piece of the Chiefs’ offense, but he’s also coming off a game in which he suffered a high-ankle sprain that briefly knocked him out of last week’s win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
Mahomes is expected to play this week as his ankle continues to improve each day. But the injury did seem to limit his mobility last week, and could very well affect his output and performance on Sunday.
With all that in mind, sportsbooks have released prop bet odds on a variety of categories for Mahomes’ performance in the upcoming AFC Championship game. Let’s take a look at some of the best odds from the major legal US sportsbooks ahead of Sunday’s NFL playoff games.
AFC Championship Game Player Prop Bets: Patrick Mahomes
Over/Under Passing Yards
Mahomes got off to a good start last week and seemed primed for a monster day prior to getting his right leg rolled up on. The version of Mahomes that returned after an evaluation and X-Ray (and lots of tape) was considerably less mobile, and the play-calling by the Chiefs also got more conservative with the team sitting on a lead. He still ended the day with 195 passing yards and one touchdown.
In the regular season, he threw for well over 300 yards in the majority of games he played in. Against the Bengals, he’s also facing a team that held him to 223 yards through the air the last time they met.
Over/Under Passing Touchdowns
This represents a downward adjustment in expectations from Mahomes, who came into last week’s playoff game with the over/under set at 2.5 passing touchdowns. He threw for two or more scores in 12 of 17 regular season games and had two against Jacksonville even with the injury. Still, Cincinnati was one of only five teams to limit Mahomes to one passing touchdown during the regular season.
Over/Under Pass Completions
Mahomes completed 24 or more passes in 11 of 17 regular season games, and very likely would have hit that mark again in last week’s playoff game if not for missing time with the injury. Even there, he still finished with 22 completions on 30 attempts. A lot depends on how much the Chiefs rely on the passing game. When Mahomes attempts 35 or more passes, he very rarely fails to get at least 25 completions. If his mobility is limited, the Chiefs may rely more on the running game and less on Mahomes’ usually spectacular ability to buy himself more time to throw. In the regular season loss to Cincinnati, he completed just 16 of 27 passes.
Over/Under Interceptions Thrown
While it’s hard to tell how the injury might affect Mahomes’ passing, one potential upside to the limited mobility could be cutting down on turnovers from trying to do too much. Mahomes had eight games without a single pick during the regular season, and he protected the ball well against Jacksonville last week. If the Chiefs rely more on the running game and less on Mahomes’ playmaking ability, his odds of throwing an interception may decrease.
Odds to Score a Touchdown
Mahomes ran for just four touchdowns in the regular season, though one of those came against the Bengals. But with his ankle compromised, Kansas City’s coaches would likely cringe at the thought of him running in the open field or even risking a pileup on a quarterback sneak. Then again, if we know one thing about Mahomes it’s that he’s a competitor who won’t shy away from a chance to score if he sees an opening in a big game like this.
NFL Player Props For Championship Week
Looking for more player props for Sunday’s games? Browse through the available markets below and compare the best odds at legal sports betting sites.