QB Landing Spots Based On Odds: NFL Draft Betting & Odds

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QB Landing Spots Based On Odds: NFL Draft Betting & Odds

The lead-up to the 2021 NFL Draft was filled with speculation as draftniks and fans debated where the top quarterback prospects in the class would land. 

In 2024, there is no consensus on where most of the top QBs will land, but the latest NFL Draft odds would suggest quarterbacks could be each of the top three picks, with a fourth one going in the top five. 

The 2021 class featured a Heisman Trophy-winning star at the top, Trevor Lawrence, followed by four other quarterbacks who would be mocked in various iterations until the second pick was announced. 

There was no consensus on where Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones would go, and NFL insider Adam Schefter even famously declared Jones would be the third overall pick after the San Francisco 49ers traded up from picking 12th to picking third a couple of weeks before the draft. Jones ended up falling to No. 15. 

Ultimately, all five QBs ended up in the top 15, including picks one, two, and three.

The 2024 class of quarterbacks has some similar aspects to 2021, with a Heisman Trophy winner penciled in as the top pick and four others falling in some order. 

Where will the top quarterbacks be picked?

Caleb Williams, USC

Draft experts are confident about one thing this year, however, and it’s that USC’s Williams will be the first overall pick by the Chicago Bears. The latest odds suggest Williams is a virtual lock to be the top pick, and it’s not hard to see why.

After taking the starting job from fellow 2024 draft pick Spencer Rattler at Oklahoma in 2021, Williams transferred to USC and won the Heisman in his first season in Southern California.

Observers view Williams as one of the top prospects at the position in recent memory, and his combination of size, athleticism, play-making ability, and production would be attractive to any franchise looking for a signal caller. 

Williams had 3,633 yards, 30 touchdowns, and five interceptions in his final season at USC.

Jayden Daniels, LSU

2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels played five college football seasons and is almost two years older than fellow draftee Drake Maye. And while some may question his age, his slight frame (6-foot-3, 210 pounds), and his durability at that size, there is no questioning his production and athleticism. Daniels had 3,812 passing yards, 40 touchdown passes, and four interceptions in 2023, along with 1,134 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Those numbers are why Daniels is the favorite to go second overall to the Washington Commanders.

According to the latest BetMGM odds, the highest ticket percentage for the second overall pick is on Daniels at 30.3%, and he’s the favorite to be the pick at -450.

Drake Maye, North Carolina

With Daniels as the favorite at No. 2, North Carolina’s Drake Maye is the favorite to go third overall to the New England Patriots, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Maye is the prototypical NFL quarterback at 6 feet, 4 inches tall and 223 pounds. The scouting community believes Maye is far from a finished product and could sit behind a veteran at the start of his NFL career, but the physical tools and pure throwing ability he possesses might be best-in-class.

Maye has the highest handle percentage for both the second (53.2%) and third (45%) overall picks at BetMGM and the highest ticket percentage from those betting on the third pick (27.6%).

Maye had 3,608 passing yards, 24 touchdown passes, and nine interceptions in his final college season, along with another nine touchdowns on the ground.

JJ McCarthy, Michigan

Michigan’s JJ McCarthy is the biggest wild card among the top quarterbacks in the 2024 class, both in terms of predicting where he will be drafted and how good a player he is. McCarthy led the Wolverines to a national championship for the 2023-24 season and, by all accounts, possesses the off-field intangibles NFL coaches salivate over. But there are some questions about how good a prospect he is from an on-field perspective. McCarthy’s raw college stats fall short of the other top QBs in this class (2,991 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, four interceptions in his final year), and some advanced stats and charting have shown inconsistent accuracy.

Despite the on-field questions, McCarthy is still likely to be a top-five pick, according to BetMGM data. The question for the Michigan product is: which draft slot and team? McCarthy has the highest ticket percentage (30.5%) and handle percentage (40.5%) at the fourth overall pick, but he isn’t actually the favorite to be the fourth overall pick at BetMGM. That honor belongs to Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

In fact, McCarthy isn’t the favorite to go fifth overall at several major sports betting sites. BetMGM does, however, have McCarthy as the favorite to go fifth by a slim margin over LSU receiver Malik Nabers.

Which team will draft McCarthy is anyone’s guess, and the latest odds suggest several teams could be in the running, including the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, and New England Patriots. BetMGM’s data shows the Patriots with the highest ticket percentage (18.3%) and handle percentage (23.8%) for the team to draft McCarthy.

Michael Penix Jr., Washington

The consensus fifth-ranked quarterback on my draft boards, Michael Penix Jr.’s college career consisted of four years at Indiana before a transfer to Washington for two more. Penix Jr. did not flourish until he got to Washington and never started more than six games at Indiana due to injury. But once he arrived on the Huskies’ roster, he quickly became one of the most prolific passers in the country.

Penix Jr. totaled 67 passing touchdowns in his two years at Washington and put up 4,903 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in his final season. Detractors will point to his age (24 in May) and injury history as red flags. The runner-up for the Heisman Trophy in 2023, Penix Jr. tore the ACL in his right knee twice during his time at Indiana.

NFL Draft bettors are very interested in where Penix Jr. will end up on draft day. BetMGM data shows him as the most popular player to go under his draft position line (32.5) in both tickets and handle. Regarding the teams most likely to draft Penix Jr., the highest ticket percentage (13.2%) is on the Seattle Seahawks, and the highest handle percentage (22.2%) is on the Atlanta Falcons. The Las Vegas Raiders are the favorite to land Penix Jr. at +200.

Bo Nix, Oregon

Some draft enthusiasts suggest this class consists of a clear top six rather than top five quarterbacks, and some have mocked Oregon’s Bo Nix as high as within the first 12 picks. The latest odds appear to view Nix as more likely to be a second-round selection, but there are plenty of QB-needy teams around the league that could push him into the first.

According to BetMGM, the Denver Broncos are the most likely team to draft Nix at -150, and the Broncos have the highest percentage of tickets (27.6%) and handle (57%) for “Team to draft Bo Nix” bettors. The Broncos pick 12th overall, but bettors seem to think it’s more likely he goes in the second round as Nix is the most bet player in terms of handle to go over his projected draft slot (32.5). Denver does not currently have a second-round pick.

Nix played five years of college football, starting more games (61) than any quarterback in NCAA history. He put up 4,508 yards with 45 touchdowns and three interceptions in his final year.