NFC Championship Odds: Latest Odds & Liabilities Ahead Of Divisional Round

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NFC Championship Odds: Latest Odds & Liabilities Ahead Of Divisional Round

The postseason continues this weekend with the NFL divisional round. If the opening round is any indication, we could be in line for some surprises. Futures betting on Super Bowl 58 odds are available throughout the playoffs, and we have already seen some significant adjustments in the wake of wild card weekend.  

Beyond betting on the divisional round games and the Lombardi Trophy winner, you can also try to forecast the winners of the conference championships. The top-seeded 49ers remain the favorite in the NFC, but the other three contenders have made it this far for a reason. Let’s take a look at the odds and chances to win the NFC for all four contenders.    

Latest NFC championship odds

The table below has the latest odds to win the NFC title from Caesars Sportsbook for the four teams that remain alive, along with the lines for this weekend’s games from various NFL betting sites.

TeamNFC OddsImplied Probability*This Week 
San Francisco 49ers-20061.67% vs. Packers
Detroit Lions+33021.51% vs. Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+10008.41% vs. Lions
Green Bay Packers+10008.41% vs. 49ers

*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.

Heading into the season, betting odds suggested that the top threats to win the NFC were the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys. Philadelphia and Dallas lost in the wild card round, leaving San Francisco as the lone member of that trio to make it to the divisional round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Lions were the favorites to win the NFC North. 

The Buccaneers and Packers were in the middle of the conference hierarchy and generally being viewed as teams that at least had the potential to be in the postseason hunt. Said another way, the NFC’s final four consists of two teams that sportsbooks viewed as having a solid chance to make it this far, as well as a pair of slight surprises.  

In advance of the NFL playoffs, we spoke with Christian Cipollini, the sportsbook trading manager at BetMGM, for some insight on which teams were seeing the most betting interest and, by extension, leading to the most liability on BetMGM’s end. Here’s what he had to say:

Our big liabilities going into the playoffs are Lions, Steelers, Rams, Browns, and to a lesser extent the Bills. Same goes for each conference; those teams are the ones we have liability on.”

Christian Cipollini – BetMGM Trading Manager

In the wake of wild card weekend, three of the five teams that he mentioned are out, with the Lions and Bills advancing to play this weekend. Let’s take a closer look at the NFC championship chase

Latest odds to win the NFC in advance of the divisional round

The 49ers are the favorite in betting odds to win the NFC as we get set for the divisional round. The club closed out the regular season at 12-5, winning the NFC West. As the conference’s top seed, San Francisco received a bye through the first round. The team will kick off its postseason at home Saturday versus the Packers. 

The Lions took down the NFC North with a record of 12-5. The club advanced with a 24-23 home win over the Rams in the opening round. Detroit will play host to the Buccaneers in the divisional round. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, won the NFC South with a record of 9-8. The team picked up a convincing home win over the Eagles in the wild card round. 

The Packers are the conference’s seventh seed and closed out the campaign with a mark of 9-8. Green Bay opened the postseason as 7.5-point road underdogs against the Cowboys. The team proceeded to pull out a stunner, building on a 27-7 halftime lead to cruise to a 48-32 victory.    

NFC divisional round matchups and odds

The NFC portion of the divisional round begins on Saturday night with the Packers on the road against the 49ers. Green Bay is riding high following the upset over the Cowboys, the team’s fourth straight win. San Francisco had last week off and rested starters in Week 18, losing a close one to the Rams. 

There’s a chance of rain in the forecast for the Bay Area. Despite that, the game’s over/under is the highest of the four divisional round games as of this writing, with the line standing at 50.5 points at many online sportsbooks. The two clubs have met nine times in the postseason, with the 49ers holding a 5-4 edge. 

The action continues on Sunday with a meeting of two division champs. The Buccaneers took down the NFC South this season and opened the playoffs with a bang, pulling out an upset over the visiting Eagles. The NFC North champion Lions advanced with a close home win over the Rams. 

That marked the first postseason victory for Detroit in 32 years. Tampa Bay has advanced to the playoffs for four straight seasons, winning it all at the beginning of that run. This game is a rematch from the regular season, a 20-6 road win for the Lions. Detroit also holds a 32-29 advantage in the all-time series.