AFC Championship Odds: Latest Odds & Liabilities Ahead Of Divisional Round

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AFC Championship Odds: Latest Odds & Liabilities Ahead Of Divisional Round

Football’s postseason rolls along with the NFL divisional round this weekend. The wild card round has whittled the field down and also shaken up the landscape in Super Bowl 58 odds. Beyond wagering on the playoff matchups, you can place futures bets on who will win the big game. 

You can also bet on which teams will win their respective conferences and go on to play for the crown, as futures betting is available for all of the remaining teams. The top-seeded Baltimore Ravens are the AFC betting favorite, but the other three squads can all make a case as well. Let’s take a look at the odds to win the AFC for all four contenders.    

Latest AFC championship odds 

The table below has the latest odds to win the AFC championship from Caesars Sportsbook for the remaining four teams, along with the lines for this weekend’s games from various NFL betting sites.

TeamAFC OddsImplied Probability*This Week 
Baltimore Ravens+11542.93% vs. Texans
Buffalo Bills+23027.97% vs. Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs+31022.51% vs. Bills
Houston Texans+13006.59% vs. Ravens

*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.

In advance of the 2023-24 NFL season, the Chiefs and Bills were at the top of the board for odds to win the AFC, with the Ravens among the next tier of teams. The Texans, meanwhile, were at the back of the pack as preseason expectations placed them among the league’s worst. 

Houston has continued to change that perception all season long, including in the wake of last weekend’s blowout win over the Cleveland Browns. Perspective has also shifted on the other three teams that remain alive. Baltimore is now the conference favorite, with Buffalo and Kansas City in second and third ahead of their game this weekend. 

Before the NFL playoffs got underway, we spoke with Christian Cipollini, the sportsbook trading manager at BetMGM. He provided us with insight into which teams were proving to be popular among the betting public, as well as where the liability stood on BetMGM’s end:

“Our big liabilities going into the playoffs are Lions, Steelers, Rams, Browns, and to a lesser extent the Bills. Same goes for each conference; those teams are the ones we have liability on.”


The results of wild card weekend have shifted the landscape, as just two of the five teams that he mentioned (Detroit and Buffalo) are still in it. Let’s take a closer look at the AFC championship chase

Latest odds to win the AFC in advance of the divisional round

The Ravens are the top favorite in betting odds to win the AFC as we get set for the divisional round. The club finished the regular season with a record of 13-4, good for first place in the AFC North. As the first seed in the conference, it had a bye through the opening round and will face the Texans on Saturday. 

The Bills went through a rough patch during the middle part of the campaign but closed out strong on a five-game winning streak. Buffalo went 11-6 and won the AFC East, advancing to the divisional round with a win over the Steelers on Monday. The Chiefs won the AFC West at 11-6 and took down the Dolphins in the opening round. 

The Texans were the surprising winners of the AFC South at 10-7. Last Saturday, the club walked onto the field as a slight home underdog against the Browns. However, after trailing 14-10 early in the second quarter, Houston dominated the rest of the way for a 45-14 victory. 

AFC divisional round matchups and odds

The divisional round begins on Saturday, with the Texans on the road against the Ravens. Houston has continued down its path of exceeding expectations. Last Saturday’s dominant win over the Browns serves as an exclamation point for now. Houston has won three straight and will look to keep that momentum going against a rested Ravens squad. 

In addition to the first round bye, many Ravens starters took a seat for the team’s regular season finale. Prior to losing that one to the Steelers, the club had won six straight. We’ll have to wait to see if the time off proves to be a factor. The Baltimore weather forecast is calling for temperatures in the 20s, and there could be some wind to deal with to boot. 

The weekend of playoff games will conclude with a showdown between the Chiefs and Bills. These two clubs have engaged in some memorable battles in recent times, including a pair of postseason meetings, both of which Kansas City won. It’s also a rematch from the regular season, with Buffalo picking up a 20-17 road win in that one. 

Once again, weather could play a role in the proceedings as the kickoff temperature in Buffalo is expected to be less than 20 degrees, with the potential for some wind on top of that. The Bills closed out the regular season strong and have won six in a row, while the Chiefs bring a three-game winning streak to the table.