The NFL playoffd get underway this weekend with the wild card round. All throughout the playoffs, Super Bowl 58 odds will be available for betting. The top-seeded San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens continue to top the charts and have a bye through the first round. Behind the two leaders, several other contenders are waiting in the wings. Another large question is how will the Browns hold up against the Texans?
Further down the list, we find a number of long shots that have the potential to get hot at the right time. So how do the current odds translate into the actual chances of a team winning Super Bowl 58? Down below, we’ll take a detailed look at that, the latest odds for each team to win its conference, and more.
Latest Super Bowl 58 odds
|SB 58 odds
|San Francisco 49ers
|Kansas City Chiefs
|Los Angeles Rams
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|Green Bay Packers
*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
Heading into the 2023-24 NFL season, the five teams at the top of the Super Bowl 58 odds board were the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Eagles, and Bengals. Four of those teams have made it to the NFL playoffs, with the Bengals being the lone outlier. San Francisco, Buffalo, and Kansas City remain among the top five options, while Philadelphia has dropped to seventh.
Joining them in the top five are the Ravens and Cowboys, two clubs that were just behind the top contenders at the initial release of odds. The remaining teams have seen their lines ebb and flow as they battled to reach the postseason. The biggest riser has been the Texans, a team that entered the campaign as one of the last options on the board.
From both an odds and probability perspective, the 49ers and Ravens top the charts, followed by the Bills and Cowboys. The remaining 10 clubs all have implied probabilities of winning Super Bowl 58 of 8% or less, all the way down to the Packers and Steelers at less than 1% apiece.
Are the Browns and Joe Flacco a dark horse?
Looking at the current Super Bowl odds, the Browns are listed at most football betting sites right around . Joe Flacco has been exceptional versus opponents in the AFC in 2023 with a total of nine touchdowns and 988 yards. More specifically, when facing the Texans, he has thrown for 360+ yards, and a total of four touchdowns.
This year, he is up to a completion percentage of 60.3%, and has accumulated 1,616 yards after being called up to lead the Browns. The question remains: will he be enough to lead the Browns to a win against the Texans? The Texans have challenges ahead, as they will lean on rookie QB C.J. Stroud.
Latest odds to win the AFC in advance of wild card weekend
The three favorites to win the AFC correlate with the seeds in the conference. Behind that, there’s a break in the order with a pair of wild card teams ahead of the fourth-seeded Texans, while the seventh-seeded Steelers bring up the rear.
Heading into the opening round, the Bills are riding the longest winning streak at five games, followed by the Steelers, who won three straight to snag a berth. The two clubs will square off in Buffalo on Sunday, with the hosts starting as a sizable favorite.
The spreads are tighter for the other two AFC wild card games, both of which take place on Saturday. Interestingly, the schedule has three AFC games to start the playoffs, with three from the other conference after that.
By the time we are getting set for the first NFC game to kick off, we’ll know which AFC teams will have advanced to the divisional round. Based on the current odds for this week’s games, the favorites to join the top-seeded Ravens are the Bills, Chiefs, and Browns.
Latest odds to win the NFC in advance of wild card weekend
The correlation between odds and seeds breaks down once we get past the 49ers and Cowboys. The Eagles are the fifth seed and third in odds. They’ll be on the road against the fourth-seeded Buccaneers, who are sixth in conference odds, on Monday night.
The odds place the other two wild card teams — the Rams and Packers — in the bottom half of the board and behind the third-seeded Lions. Green Bay is a sizable road underdog against the Cowboys, while the spread is tighter for the Rams versus the Lions.
The Packers and Rams have the most wins in a row heading into the playoffs at four and three games, respectively. Meanwhile, Philadelphia heads to the dance on a down note: losers of two straight after entering both matchups as the favorite.
Once the Monday night game is in the books, we’ll know the two matchups for the NFC divisional round. Using the current spreads for this week’s games as a guide, the Cowboys, Lions, and Eagles are the favorites to join the top-seeded 49ers.