The NFL playoff picture has started to shift as we reach the midway point of the season. As we get set for Week 9, the Chiefs and Dolphins remain the top favorites in the AFC as they prepare for a showdown in Germany. Over on the NFC side, the Eagles are now the top choice in the wake of a surprising three-game losing streak for the 49ers.
Both conferences feature some strong favorites to reach the postseason, while the chase for the final seeds shapes up to be rather competitive. Each week, we review the current NFL playoff odds and take a look at what the seeds and matchups would look like if the playoffs started today, based on the latest lines.
AFC playoff odds in Week 9
|Team||Playoff Odds||Implied Probability*||This Week|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-6000||91.48%||vs. Dolphins|
|Miami Dolphins||-1600||87.53%||vs. Chiefs|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||-1400||86.80%||Bye week|
|Baltimore Ravens||-700||81.37%||vs. Seahawks|
|Buffalo Bills||-200||62.00%||at Bengals|
|Cincinnati Bengals||-170||58.56%||vs. Bills|
|Cleveland Browns||-125||51.67%||vs. Cardinals|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||+150||37.20%||vs. Titans|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+155||36.47%||at Jets|
|New York Jets||+210||30.00%||vs. Chargers|
|Houston Texans||+290||23.85%||vs. Buccaneers|
|Indianapolis Colts||+425||17.71%||at Panthers|
|Tennessee Titans||+550||14.31%||at Steelers|
|Denver Broncos||+800||10.33%||Bye week|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+1200||7.15%||vs. Giants|
|New England Patriots||+2500||3.58%||vs. Commanders|
Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
The Chiefs fell to 6-2 with a surprising loss to the Broncos on Sunday. The club remains firmly in control of the AFC West race as it travels to Germany to take on the Dolphins. Miami is in first place in the AFC East and also 6-2. The winner of this showdown of AFC heavyweights could find itself alone atop the odds board for next week. Based on the current odds, here is what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today:
- Bye: (1) Kansas City Chiefs
- (2) Miami Dolphins vs. (7) Cleveland Browns
- (3) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (6) Cincinnati Bengals
- (4) Baltimore Ravens vs. (5) Buffalo Bills
The Jaguars are in control of the AFC South race at 6-2 and are riding a five-game winning streak heading into a bye. The Ravens have won three in a row to move to 6-2 and hold down the top spot in the AFC North. Behind the four division leaders, the 5-3 Bills are the top choice to nab the conference’s first wild card spot.
However, the chase for that seed could tighten even further this week as the Bills travel to take on the Bengals on Sunday Night Football. The winner of that matchup will likely take clear possession of the fifth spot in AFC odds, and potentially move even further up the chart depending on other results.
The Browns hold the lead for the conference’s final seed as far as the odds are concerned, but a quartet of teams aren’t too far behind: the Steelers, Chargers, Jets, and Texans. The Chargers and Jets square off on Monday Night Football, another primetime battle that could have an impact on next week’s playoff picture.
NFC playoff odds in Week 9
Here are the playoff odds for all 16 NFC teams from Caesars Sportsbook, along with their implied playoff probability and the lines for their Week 9 games.
|Team||Playoff Odds||Implied Probability*||This Week|
|Philadelphia Eagles||-25000||96.37%||vs. Cowboys|
|Detroit Lions||-8000||95.56%||Bye week|
|Dallas Cowboys||-2000||92.15%||at Eagles|
|San Francisco 49ers||-1900||91.92%||Bye week|
|Seattle Seahawks||-380||76.60%||at Ravens|
|Atlanta Falcons||-170||60.92%||vs. Vikings|
|New Orleans Saints||-150||58.05%||vs. Bears|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+200||32.25%||at Texans|
|Minnesota Vikings||+230||29.32%||at Falcons|
|Los Angeles Rams||+310||23.60%||at Packers|
|Green Bay Packers||+450||17.59%||vs. Rams|
|Washington Commanders||+900||9.68%||at Patriots|
|New York Giants||+2500||3.72%||at Raiders|
|Carolina Panthers||+2500||3.72%||vs. Colts|
|Arizona Cardinals||+2700||3.46%||at Browns|
*Our implied probability calculation uses the sportsbook’s odds minus the vigorish charged by that sportsbook. An average online gambling calculator will provide you with the implied probability based on just the betting odds. By going a step further and accounting for the vig, we find a true implied probability in relation to the sportsbook’s odds.
There has been a shakeup in playoff odds on the NFC side. The 7-1 Eagles are now the top choice, followed by the 6-2 Lions and 5-2 Cowboys. The 49ers have dropped three straight to fall to 5-3 and are headed to a bye week looking for some answers. Here’s how the NFC seeds would shake out based on the latest odds.
- Bye: (1) Philadelphia Eagles
- (2) Detroit Lions vs. (7) New Orleans Saints
- (3) San Francisco 49ers vs. (6) Seattle Seahawks
- (4) Atlanta Falcons vs. (5) Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles and Cowboys square off on Sunday in Philadelphia. The former is favored to win the NFC East for now. The Lions are heavily favored to win the NFC North in the latest division odds. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 5-2 and have closed the gap with the 49ers in the NFC West.
The NFC South race remains murky. The Falcons and Saints are both 4-4, with the Buccaneers right behind them at 3-4. Atlanta is shaking things up this week and has announced that Taylor Heinicke will get the start in place of Desmond Ridder. Meanwhile, the Vikings have come alive and won three straight to get to 4-4.
However, the team has suffered a devastating blow as Kirk Cousins is done for the year with a torn Achilles. It could be Jaren Hall or the newly acquired Joshua Dobbs under center this week. Finally, the Rams and Packers square off on Sunday in a meeting of two clubs looking to keep flickering playoff hopes alive.
Projected Super Bowl 58 matchups for Week 9
Betting odds on the winner of Super Bowl 58 have also shifted as we get set for the ninth week of regular season action. At most legal online sportsbooks, just six teams have odds of +1500 or less to win the big game.
- Odds to win Super Bowl 58:
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers
- Miami Dolphins
- Dallas Cowboys
- Baltimore Ravens
Based on the latest odds, potential matchups for Super Bowl 58 include the following:
- Chiefs vs. Eagles
- Chiefs vs. 49ers
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys
- Eagles vs. Dolphins
- Eagles vs. Ravens
- 49ers vs. Dolphins
- 49ers vs. Ravens
- Dolphins vs. Cowboys
- Cowboys vs. Ravens
There are two big showdowns of potential Super Bowl contenders this week: Dolphins vs. Chiefs in Germany, and the Cowboys traveling to face the Eagles for an NFC East matchup. The winners of those two games could see a spike in odds heading into next week. The 49ers get this week off, while the Ravens host the Seahawks.