Tua Jumps To MVP Co-Favorite: Tua Tagovailoa MVP Odds Update After Week 1


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Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa began the NFL regular season with a bang on Sunday, and it had an immediate effect on his MVP odds. Tagovailoa’s Week 1 performance saw him throw for 466 yards and three TDs with one interception in Miami’s 36-34 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. That was enough to take him from the outer edge of the top 10 in NFL MVP odds to tied for the top spot at some of the top betting sites.

Below, we’ll look at Tagovailoa’s latest MVP odds and analyze what historical trends have to say about whether this early line movement will hold up through the season.

Tua Tagovailoa’s MVP odds shift

The striking thing about Tagovailoa’s MVP odds movement is how suddenly it happened. Before the start of the season, the Dolphins QB was tied for ninth on the top 10 list of MVP betting favorites. After one big game in the win over the Chargers, his odds at at least one sportsbook went from +2000 to win the NFL MVP award to +600. That would put him tied with two-time winner Patrick Mahomes, who was last season’s MVP. Other sportsbooks have Tagovailoa behind Mahomes, but not by much.

PlayerCurrent oddsJuly 10 oddsOpening odds
Patrick Mahomes+700
(DK)
+650
Tua Tagovailoa+2000
(Bet365)
+1500
Joe Burrow+750
(DK)
+650
Jalen Hurts+1200
(FD)
+1300
Josh Allen+800
(DK)
+800

Other Tua Tagovailoa futures odds

Recent NFL MVP winners

One thing working in Tagovailoa’s favor is that, in the modern age, the league MVP is overwhelmingly likely to be a quarterback. It’s been just over a decade since a player at any other position won the award. That was RB Adrian Peterson in 2012. The last 10 NFL MVPs have all been QBs, like Tagovailoa.

But team success and not just individual achievement also seems to play a role in winning the award. All of those 10 QBs led teams that at least made the playoffs. Of those teams, half made it all the way to the Super Bowl, three lost in the conference championship game, and two were eliminated in the divisional round.

The Dolphins made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016 and lost in the wild card round. Tagovailoa missed several games during the 2022-23 season, including the team’s lone playoff game, due to ongoing concussion issues.

YearPosition/PlayerTeam
2022QB Patrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
2021QB Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2020QB Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2019QB Lamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens
2018QB Patrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
2017QB Tom BradyNew England Patriots
2016QB Matt RyanAtlanta Falcons
2015QB Cam NewtonCarolina Panthers
2014QB Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers
2013QB Peyton ManningDenver Broncos

Upcoming Miami Dolphins games

The Dolphins are favorites on the road against the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football this week. Miami finishes out the first month of the regular season playing at home against the Denver Broncos, then begins October against the defending AFC East champ Buffalo Bills. Here’s the full 2023-24 Dolphins schedule for the regular season.