The 2023 NFL draft begins this Thursday in Kansas City and will run through Saturday. As usual, the big spotlight for NFL draft odds is on the first round of picks. The Carolina Panthers have traded up for the top spot, and the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals are in the second and third positions, respectively. A lot of teams’ plans could change based on what those first three teams decide to do.
As speculation heats up, sportsbooks have released odds on which players are likely to go in the top 10 spots. Below, we’ll take a look at the lines on some of the top favorites to get drafted early.
Best odds on top 10 picks in the 2023 NFL draft
Below are the current favorites in each draft spot, according to odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Be aware that NFL draft odds can change quickly depending on new information about each team’s plans. Note that these odds will change once the NFL draft begins on Thursday night.
No. 1 draft pick
As recently as Monday, it seemed like practically a done deal that the Carolina Panthers would take Alabama quarterback and 2021 Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young with their first overall draft pick. Carolina traded up to the top spot in a deal with the Chicago Bears in March. However, after a Reddit poster claimed that Kentucky quarterback Will Levis had been telling friends and family that the Panthers planned to draft him first instead, odds shifted dramatically.
No. 2 draft pick
The Houston Texans have the second pick in this year’s draft, and their main areas of need appear to be quarterback, receiver and edge defense. That gives this pick some potential for surprise. The Texans are considered most likely to take the best quarterback available with their pick. But they could also conceivably use it to address defensive needs by drafting Tyree Wilson, the big, rangy edge defender out of Texas A&M.
Another option is Will Anderson, the linebacker out of Alabama. As of Tuesday night, Wilson has shifted to the favorite to go in this spot on DraftKings. That would leave quarterbacks like Levis and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud available for teams in lower spots, which could cause a ripple effect in the draft.
No. 3 draft pick
Currently, the Arizona Cardinals have the third pick in the draft. That could change, however, as recent reports have suggested that the team is eager to trade that spot. If it doesn’t, the team’s biggest needs seem to be on defense. The pass rush is especially of concern after losing J.J. Watt to retirement and Zach Allen to free agency. That could put Anderson and Wilson in the spotlight — assuming the Cardinals don’t trade the spot to one of the teams eager to get a top quarterback like Stroud.
No. 4 draft pick
With the fourth spot in the draft, the Indianapolis Colts have made it clear that their top priority is snagging a quarterback. That explains why Levis and Stroud are back atop the favorites in this position, along with Florida QB Anthony Richardson. The question is which quarterbacks will still be available and how it will affect the Colts’ decision.
No. 5 draft pick
The Seattle Seahawks have the fifth pick, thanks to a trade with the Denver Broncos, giving them two draft picks in the first round this year. They just re-signed Geno Smith to a three-year deal, so quarterback likely isn’t their top priority. Instead, many onlookers expect Seattle to prioritize defense, looking to shore up its linebacking core and defensive line.
That’s where players like Anderson, Wilson and Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter come into the conversation. As of Tuesday night, Carter had jumped into the favorite position on DraftKings.
No. 6 draft pick
The Detroit Lions have the sixth and 18th pick in this year’s draft. After a late-season surge and a productive offseason, they’re seen as one of the teams with more flexibility than glaring needs in the top 10 of this year’s draft. Recent speculation suggests Detroit will focus on defense first here, with Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon emerging as a likely pick. A lot could depend, though, on which other defensive standouts are still on the board. If Carter, Anderson and/or Wilson are still available as other teams chase quarterbacks, that could change Detroit’s calculations. The odds also see Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez as a possibility.
No. 7 draft pick
The Las Vegas Raiders have the seventh pick, and they’re one of many teams potentially in the market for a quarterback. But with the top QBs likely already off the board at this point, the next most pressing need may be at cornerback. If either Gonzalez or Witherspoon are still available, they’ll likely be tempting choices. But the Raiders might also not be able to resist the chance to snag a top offensive lineman like Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. or Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski.
No. 8 draft pick
The Atlanta Falcons have the eighth pick in this year’s draft, and conventional wisdom says that the team has some holes to fill on defense. That’s why edge rushers like Georgia’s Nolan Smith and Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness seem like strong possibilities (assuming Atlanta doesn’t trade the pick). But there’s also been talk that Texas running back Bijan Robinson could be just right for the Falcons, with the potential to be a first-year starter in the NFL.
No. 9 draft pick
The Chicago Bears started with the top draft pick before trading down to the ninth spot in a deal with the Panthers. That choice was made easier by the fact that Chicago is committed to quarterback Justin Fields. The Bears had the NFL’s worst pass rush last season and need help on the defensive line. Chicago paid a lot of attention to Carter during the evaluation period but might still have concerns about whether he’s the right fit personally. The Bears also have a big hole at right tackle, where Tennessee offensive lineman Darnell Wright spent his entire college career, unlike Johnson and Skoronski.
No. 10 draft pick
The Philadelphia Eagles acquired the 10th pick in a deal with the New Orleans Saints, giving them a high draft position for a team that won the NFC last season. Most experts think the team’s most pressing need is at defensive tackle, though there are also whispers that the Eagles might be thinking further into the future with an offensive line pick. The outlier could be Robinson at running back, since the Eagles currently have a trio of ball-carriers with only one signed beyond this season.
NFL draft odds on players to be drafted anywhere in the top 10
In addition to offering bets on the exact draft position of various players, sportsbooks will also have odds on whether various players will go anywhere in the top 10 spots.
|Lukas Van Ness
NFL over/under draft odds
Additionally, for some players in the NFL draft, oddsmakers have set an over/under on where they’ll go in the overall order. For these bets to be successful, you must correctly predict whether the player will go higher or lower than the draft position the sportsbook has set. (In other words, a player with a draft position of 4.5 would be considered “over” if he went fifth overall or higher and “under” if he ends up going anywhere in the first four picks).
|Over 7.5 (+110)
|Under 7.5 (-140)
|Over 8.5 (-130)
|Under 8.5 (+100)
|Over 6.5 (+100)
|Under 6.5 (-130)
|Over 6.5 (+300)
|Under 6.5 (-400)
|Over 10.5 (-150)
|Under 10.5 (+110)
|Paris Johnson Jr.
|Over 9.5 (+230)
|Under 9.5 (-300)
|Over 3.5 (-175)
|Under 3.5 (+135)